Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires today, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor.
The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership.
Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, is seeing his term come to an end.
Most noteworthy during his term, he dissented at all six FOMC meetings he attended, consistently pushing for 50-basis-point rate cuts.
It’s not a stretch to say he was the Fed’s biggest dove.
In the graphic below, we circle Miran’s year-end Fed Funds projection in the latest Fed’s dot plot.
As shown, Miran projected a year-end 2026 Fed Funds rate of 2.625%, nearly a full percentage point below the current median of 3.42%. That dovish voice is now gone.
Warsh’s arrival shifts the balance. Here are a few considerations worth keeping in mind:
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The Fed tilted slightly more hawkishly: Warsh may prove more dovish than his reputation suggests, but it is nearly impossible he will match Miran’s appetite for cuts.
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The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is unlikely to produce action. Given recent inflation data, we see little appetite for rate cuts at the next FOMC meeting despite new leadership.
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Powell isn’t gone. He has pledged to remain a Fed Governor through January 2028, or until ongoing investigations into the Fed’s construction project and legal challenges against Governor Lisa Cook reach what he calls “transparency and finality.”
The bottom line: The Fed just got incrementally more hawkish, and the June meeting will be the first test of what that actually means. Moreover, Kevin Warsh will now be on the speaking circuit, so we can better ascertain his thoughts on inflation, employment, and how he will lead the Fed going forward.