Well, well, well.
On Feb. 3, we first asked whether a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 was quietly taking shape on the collapsed, communist-run Caribbean island of Cuba.
But instead of Soviet missiles, we warned that Havana may be stockpiling Russian-made Geranium one-way attack drones with the operational range to threaten major U.S. oil and gas refineries in the Gulf of America, key military bases, data centers, power grid infrastructure, and potentially even Washington, D.C.
Nearly three and a half months ago, we laid out the framework for a potential drone threat against the homeland originating from Cuba, using an infographic published by the Russian think tank Rybar.
Rybar is a noteworthy source in this context, and Western officials are not fans. The State Department has offered a $10 million reward for information on the outlet through its Rewards for Justice program, while both the European Union and the United Kingdom have sanctioned it.
At the time, Rybar wrote: "But what would the Cubans do in the event of a conflict? Let us hypothetically imagine that Havana decides to resist the Americans and chooses to fight. In that case, the already world-famous Geran strike drones could come to their aid."
Fast forward to Sunday: Axios, citing newly obtained U.S. intelligence, reports that Cuba has accumulated roughly 300 military drones from Russia and Iran and has discussed potential wartime strike scenarios targeting Guantanamo Bay, U.S. naval vessels, and possibly Key West.
Axios spoke with a senior US official who said the Cuban drone threat is becoming a growing national security concern because of Cuba's proximity to the U.S., the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana, and the rapid proliferation of low-cost drone warfare.
"When we think about those types of technologies being that close, and a range of bad actors from terror groups to drug cartels to Iranians to the Russians, it's concerning," the official said.
The official noted that Cuba has been building drone stockpiles of "varying capabilities" from Russia and Iran since 2023.
Late last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with officials in Havana, which appeared to reopen the channel for political dialogue between the two countries.
Ratcliffe and top U.S. officials, some of whose faces were blurred in images released by the CIA on X, held high-level talks with Cuba's Interior Minister, the head of Cuban intelligence, and Raúl Castro's grandson, Raulito Rodríguez Castro.
AP News noted that Cuban officials presented a report to Ratcliffe and his team, claiming to demonstrate that the communist-run island poses no threat to U.S. national security.
Meanwhile, the most glaring vulnerability in U.S. airspace is the absence of a low-cost, layered counter-drone technology capable of detecting and defeating one-way attack drones. That gap spans energy infrastructure, stadiums, data centers, military facilities, power substations, and other high-value civilian assets.
This is precisely why private equity funds have recently rushed into the space. PE firms are increasingly moving to fund, acquire, and import battle-tested Ukrainian drone and counter-drone systems into the U.S. market, positioning for a rapid phase of domestic airspace fortification.
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We've outlined this theme for months, even before it became a national topic. Follow the money, as we've mentioned, just watch the parabolic rise of 'war unicorns' in the quarters and years ahead.