"Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance In 18 Months," Says Chamath Palihapitiya

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/taiwan-loses-its-strategic-important-18-months-says-chamath-palihapitiya

在最近接受福克斯新闻采访时,特朗普总统表示不愿卷入潜在的台海冲突,并强调希望美中之间能够缓和局势。尽管台湾是全球半导体生产中心,也是太平洋地区至关重要的地缘政治资产,但其战略重要性已成为争论的话题。 科技投资人查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚(Chamath Palihapitiya)认为,随着美国扩大国内芯片制造规模以及自动化技术的进步减少了对台湾生产的依赖,台湾的重要性可能会在18个月内减弱。他指出,如果台湾半导体带来的经济必要性消失,美国对台的外交政策可能会发生重大转变。 然而,这一观点遭到了欧亚集团总裁伊恩·布雷默(Ian Bremmer)等专家的批评。他们认为,仅仅通过芯片生产的视角来看待台湾,忽略了它对日本、韩国和澳大利亚等美国地区盟友的更广泛的地缘政治重要性。这场辩论凸显了外交政策中的“交易式方法”与将台湾视为西太平洋安全核心要素的“传统观点”之间日益增长的紧张关系。

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原文

In an interview with Fox News' Bret Baier that aired Friday, President Trump said that he doesn't want "to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war" over Taiwan.

"I'm not looking to have somebody to go independent and, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war," Trump told Baier. "I'm not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down."

Taiwan has been a major point of friction between Washington and Beijing. Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC News that the issue was not a key topic during Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The initial White House readout of the summit also did not mention Taiwan, home to the world's most advanced semiconductor production.

Taiwan is strategically important for three main reasons:

  • It is indispensable to global semiconductor production.

  • It sits at the center of the Western Pacific security architecture.

  • It remains a major flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

In other words, Taiwan is critically important to the U.S. because it is not only a semiconductor production supernode, but also a geopolitical fortress against China and a potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.

However, Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital and part of the All-In podcast, pointed out that Taiwan could be on track to lose one of its most strategic advantages in the next 18 months.

Palihapitiya continued:

We're 18 months from Taiwan not being an important moment of conversation the way it is today.

Why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1-2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us.

And so as we scale up our chip fabs, as we get more capacity, and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed.

I don't know if you guys saw, but Neuralink was showcasing a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operations for the implantation, all automatically.

When you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today.

Today, it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan.

Palihapitiya's take on the rise of U.S. chip fabs, many of which are based in Arizona and could soon turn the state into the new Taiwan, drew backlash on X, notably from geopolitical risk analyst Ian Bremmer, who said, "This is Trump's perspective: the only thing that matters about Taiwan is the chips. Very different from the view of U.S. allies in the region: Japan, South Korea, and Australia."

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