California Republicans are showing unexpected momentum heading into the state’s June 2 primary election, posting stronger early voting numbers while Democrats remain divided across several high-profile races.
More than 900,000 ballots have already been returned in California’s all-mail primary system, according to data compiled by Political Data Intelligence. The early numbers indicate Republicans are outperforming expectations in a state long dominated by Democrats.
As of May 15, Republican turnout stood at 6 percent statewide, compared to 4 percent for Democrats. Despite Democrats maintaining nearly a two-to-one voter registration advantage, Republicans are keeping pace in overall ballot returns.
Of the ballots cast so far, registered Democrats account for roughly 371,000 votes, while Republicans have submitted nearly 335,000 ballots. Another 200,000 ballots came from independents and voters without party affiliation.
Compared to this stage of the 2022 midterm cycle, Republican participation has surged sharply. Early vote share for Republicans has increased by 11 percentage points, while Democratic share has fallen significantly.
The trend is particularly noticeable in key Southern California counties.
In Orange County, Republicans currently hold an advantage of more than 10,000 ballots returned, despite the county’s increasingly competitive political landscape in recent years.
In San Diego County, Republicans have posted an 11 percent turnout rate, nearly double the Democratic rate of 6 percent, and currently make up a majority of ballots returned.
Even in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Republicans are outperforming Democrats in turnout percentage, with Republicans at 4 percent compared to just 2 percent for Democrats, though Democrats still maintain a raw numerical advantage because of their larger voter base.
Political observers say the numbers may reflect renewed Republican enthusiasm and a return to traditional GOP early voting habits after years in which many Republican voters were skeptical of mail-in voting.
“Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before [President Donald] Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell told the New York Post. “It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election.”
The early turnout surge comes as Democrats remain fractured in a crowded gubernatorial primary field. Xavier Becerra currently leads the Democratic field, which also includes billionaire Tom Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
On the Republican side, voters are choosing between former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.
California’s “jungle primary” system advances the top two vote-getters to the November general election regardless of party affiliation.