Wayfair CFO Kate Gulliver appeared at JPMorgan's conference Monday morning in a discussion with the bank's retail analyst, Christopher Horvers.
What caught our attention in the 35-minute conversation, which ranged from the online home-goods retailer's financial position to broader consumer trends, was Gulliver's outlook on home goods and housing markets.
A more active housing market typically drives demand for big-ticket home purchases such as sofas, tables, and other furnishings sold on Wayfair's online platform.
However, her forecast for the remainder of the year was decidedly muted, a gloomy outlook that may leave realtors and mortgage brokers uneasy.
Horvers asked Gulliver about the home goods and housing markets, including whether she was worried about soaring energy prices, the post-stimulus era, and how those factors could affect consumer demand for home goods over the rest of the year.
Her outlook for the rest of the year was not great. She noted that the home goods category "has not been a tailwind for us."
"At some point, this cyclical category will recover, but our expectations for 2026 and our guidance for the second quarter do not assume any category recovery. Our operating assumption for 2026 is that the category stays where it is," Gulliver explained.
Gulliver's dismal view of the home goods and housing markets for the rest of the year offers valuable insight because Wayfair is one of the largest online home-furnishings platforms in the U.S.
Much of Wayfair's consumer base consists of millennials and Gen Xers in the household-formation cycle, including raising a family, buying a home, or moving into a larger residence, all of which drive demand for furniture and such.
This muted activity she observes and forecasts also comes as the 30-year mortgage rate is back around 6.5%, up roughly 35 basis points from when the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February.
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Gulliver's view serves as a proxy for the housing market. Her comments this morning offer no relief for the struggling realtors and mortgage brokers over the last several years.
Also to note, rate markets are pricing in hikes next year as energy inflation from the Hormuz chokepoint disruption pushes up inflation expectations and TSY yields soar.