The white-collar job-loss apocalypse, accelerated by AI, is increasingly concentrated in repetitive, data-intensive, and digitally native roles, with tech firms announcing layoffs one after another.
While 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is Wednesday morning, the London-headquartered international bank Standard Chartered announced on Tuesday plans to cut 15% of its corporate roles (or about 7800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.
STAN also raised its profitability targets, aiming for a 15% return on tangible equity by 2028 and roughly 18% by 2030.
"Drive productivity improvements to raise income per employee by ~20 percent by 2028, aided by a reduction in corporate functions roles of >15 percent by 2030," STAN wrote in a press release.
STAN CEO Bill Winters stated in the release, "We are investing in the capabilities that will compound our competitive advantages and drive sustainable growth and higher quality returns over time, with clear targets in place."
To achieve this, Winters explained: "We are scaling practical uses of automation, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence to streamline processes, improve decision-making and enhance both client service and internal efficiency."
During the earnings call, Winters provided more color on these plans, insisting, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."
Here is Goldman analyst Gaelle Jarrousse's first take on STAN's move to reduce headcount to improve higher income per employee and returns:
Let's start with STANDARD CHARTERED CMD where the key punch line is Bill Winters mentioning that 'I can tell you in 2030, if we're generating 18%, I'm not going to be doing high fives with the team. I don't think that that's the potential of this bank.
But I'm not allowed to say that because the slide says 18% by around 18% by 2030.' It highlights the level of conservatism baked in the targets esp in the 57% Cost Income ratio.
The >15% ROTE target for 2028 (assuming 5-7% top line growth vs consensus at 5% and high teens EPS growth vs consensus at 18%) won't lead to earnings upgrades given consensus is at 15%.
However the 18% ROTE target for 2030 gives enough sustained growth and validates the thesis of a lasting growth story. There are not many banks offering c.20% EPS growth until 2030 with a clear narrative (and there not many banks giving you access to the Asian wealth story) and the multiple of STAN does not reflect that – REMEMBER the chart of EPS growth vs PE of last Friday, STAN screened very well on that, ie more re-rating is needed given the growth offered and the right type of growth, ie wealth deserving a higher multiple. STAY LONG.
Beyond STAN, 'D-Day' for Meta layoffs is tomorrow morning, and the Facebook and Instagram owner is expected to slash 10% of its global headcount, or about 8,000 employees, in the initial round as it swaps headcount for GPUs.
Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for "ChatGPT" and "layoffs" ...
Layoffs.fyi, a website tracking tech job cuts worldwide, reported that 73,212 employees have lost their jobs so far this year. For all of 2024, the figure was 153,000.
Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. Goldman laid out in 2023 just how many jobs AI will take. That number is absolutely alarming for white-collar America, where many are saddled with student and credit card debt.