Commercial Electricity Use Will Surpass Residential In 2027, As Price Surge Set To Continue: EIA

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/commercial-electricity-use-will-surpass-residential-2027-price-surge-set-continue-eia

美国能源信息署（EIA）预计，到2027年，商业用电量将首次超过住宅用电量。在数据中心、超大规模云服务商及加密货币挖矿业务扩张的推动下，预计当年商业电力需求将激增5.3%。相比之下，住宅用电量预计保持平稳，年增长率仅为0.5%。尽管需求增长放缓，但住宅用户仍面临成本上涨的问题。EIA估计，今年住宅电价将上涨近5%，并于2026年继续保持约2%的涨幅。由于公用事业公司需要分摊电网现代化、极端天气防护及发电需求增加所带来的成本，东海岸地区预计将面临最剧烈的电价上涨，年涨幅最高可达7%。工业用电量也呈上升趋势，特别是在得克萨斯州，制造业和数据中心的发展正带动中南西部地区电力需求的显著增长。

原文

By Robert Wilson of UtilityDive

Commercial electricity consumption is likely to surpass residential use for the first time on record in 2027, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The commercial sector, which includes hyperscalers, bitcoin miners and cloud computing, is expected to see electricity sales grow 2.2% to about 1,530 billion kWh in 2026 — roughly the same as the residential sector — followed by 5.3% growth the following year, EIA said.

Demand from the residential sector, which has historically accounted for the largest share of U.S. electricity use, will remain largely flat over the next two years, growing about 0.5% in 2026 and 2027. Total U.S. electricity consumption in 2026 will be almost 4,250 billion kWh, up 1.3% from 2025, and is expected to grow 3.1% in 2027.

Meanwhile, U.S. residential electricity prices will continue to rise amid growing demand, particularly from the commercial sector, which includes data centers, the EIA said.

Residential customers will pay an average of 18.2 cents/kWh this year, “a nearly 5% increase from 2025, which is similar to the increase in U.S. prices between 2024 and 2025,” EIA estimated. “We expect residential prices to grow at a slightly lower rate of 2% next year.”

“Residential prices have been growing in all regions of the United States, and we expect this trend to continue,” EIA said. Areas along the East coast will experience the largest increases in residential prices, with average annual growth as high as 7% for the next two years.

“Electric utilities in these regions are citing various factors for rising electricity rates, including higher fuel prices for generation and expenses for bolstering the transmission grid against extreme weather and to accommodate rising power demand,” the short-term outlook said.

Industrial sales, the smallest of the three segments, are also rising, according to EIA. “We forecast industrial electricity consumption will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 to reach a total of 1,095 [billion] kWh next year,” the monthly report said. “Increases in electricity demand for both the commercial and industrial sectors is strongest in the West South Central region, driven by data center and manufacturing growth in Texas.”