The Growing Burden Of Old-Age Dependency

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/growing-burden-old-age-dependency

根据联合国《2024年世界人口展望》,许多国家正面临老年抚养比(即65岁及以上人口与劳动年龄人口之比)迅速上升的问题。 据预测,韩国将经历最剧烈的变化,其比例将从31.2激增至2050年的75.6,意大利紧随其后。中国的比例预计也将翻一番以上,而美国的人口老龄化过程则会更为缓慢。相反,印度和其他新兴经济体预计将保持相对年轻。 这些由出生率和预期寿命变化所驱动的人口趋势,可能会给劳动力市场、养老金体系和公共财政带来压力。随着劳动力相对于老年人口的萎缩,各国政府正面临调整政策以支持老龄化社会的紧迫挑战。尽管这些预测描绘了严峻的前景,但专家指出,这些预测简化了复杂的经济现实,因为它们并未充分考虑到积极工作的老年人或青年就业率的差异。

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原文

Many countries around the world are facing a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio, according to projections published in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, this indicator measures the number of people aged 65 and older relative to the working-age population (between 15 and 64 years old).

South Korea is expected to experience a particularly steep increase, with the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age adults projected to jump from 31.2 in 2026 to 75.6 by 2050.

Infographic: The Growing Burden of Old-Age Dependency | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Italy is also forecast to see a dramatic rise, climbing from 40.7 to 70.4. These figures underscore the accelerating pace of global population ageing, which will result in a growing economic burden on shrinking workforces.

Established industrial economies such as the United States are projected to age more gradually, with the old-age dependency ratio rising from 29.3 to 37.9 over the same period.

By comparison, China is expected to undergo a particularly rapid demographic shift, with its ratio more than doubling from 21.6 to 52.3.

India and several younger emerging economies are forecast to remain comparatively youthful despite moderate increases.

These UN projections are based on certain trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration.

If these trends continue, ageing populations are likely to put increasing pressure on labor markets, pension systems and public finances, requiring governments to adapt their policies to older populations.

It's important to note that this data does not account for the fact that many people over the age of 65 are still working, and younger people will not all be working.

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