In their first direct contact since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron telephoned Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to warn him against increasing his country's engagement in the war, according to sources who spoke to AFP.
"[Macron] highlighted the risks Belarus will face if dragged into the war in Ukraine. He also called on Lukashenko to take necessary measures to improve relations between Belarus and Europe," a source told AFP. Lukashenko let Russia use Belarus as a staging area for the 2022 invasion, and has continued to let Russia launch missile and drone strikes from Belarus over the more than three years of war.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia might be preparing to open a new front in the war, striking northern Ukraine and Kiev with heightened involvement of the Belarusian military. Zelensky's warning came after Belarus announced its participation in three days of massive nuclear drills with Russia. Russia’s Defense Ministry said the exercise involved 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface warships and 13 submarines, including eight armed with nuclear-tipped ICBMs. The drills focused on the “preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression,” it said.
Ukraine's Border Guard Service, however, said they haven't observed signs of Russian or Belarusian troops massing on the frontier -- yet. "If we talk about the line of our border, then, fortunately, as of this moment, we do not record any movement of equipment, weapons, or personnel in the immediate vicinity of our border or such accumulation," said a spokesman. He did claim that intelligence shows Putin has been increasing pressure on Lukashenko to join the war.
Amid the mounting tension, Lukashenko last week offered his availability for a meeting with Zelensky. "If (Zelensky) wants to discuss something, seek advice, or anything else, please do. We are open to it," Lukashenka said. "I am ready to meet with him anywhere - in Ukraine, in Belarus - and discuss the problems of Belarusian-Ukrainian relations." Lukashenko also dismissed the idea that Belarus would directly join Russia's war, saying that wouldn't happen unless "aggression is committed against (Belarusian) territory."
Russia's Belarus-based arsenal includes the Oreshnik -- Russia's nuclear-capable, hypersonic, intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM). Over Saturday night, Russia made rare use of the cutting-edge Oreshnik missiles in a spectacular assault on Kiev and nearby territory. The attack made good on Putin's vow to avenge a Ukrainian strike that hit a secondary-school dormitory in the Russian-controlled Luhansk oblast, killing at least 18 people. Belarus announced the deployment of Oreshniks on its territory in late December.
Macron initiated Sunday's call. Their last phone conversation came on Feb 26, 2022, just two days after the Russian army launched its so-called "special military operation" aimed at cleaving Ukraine's eastern Donbas region from the country.