A Florida judge handed Democrats a significant setback Tuesday, ruling that Gov. Ron DeSantis’s redrawn congressional map can remain in place while three state lawsuits work their way through the courts. Leon County Circuit Judge Joshua Hawkes, a DeSantis appointee, denied a request for a preliminary injunction, keeping the Republican-friendly plan intact as Florida's 2026 election machinery shifts into gear.

The ruling falls in the middle of the ongoing redistricting war sparked by Texas’s redistricting last year. California responded with its own new maps, but overall, Republicans have seen a net gain of seats from states that have successfully redrawn their maps. Virginia’s pro-Democrat gerrymander got smacked down by the state Supreme Court for ignoring the very process mandated by the state constitution. Louisiana is now expected to turn one of its two black Democrat-held seats into a Republican pickup, and, earlier this month, Tennessee wiped out its last Democrat-controlled black-majority district.

Hawkes found that plaintiffs had not demonstrated a substantial likelihood of success on the merits, a threshold required to block the map before trial. 

In his written opinion, Hawkes characterized mapmaker Jason Poreda's use of partisan data as circumstantial evidence of intent, not the direct proof required under the law. He also noted that forcing Florida back to its 2022 map on a rushed record would be improper, particularly with primaries less than three months away and election officials already deep into preparation.

DeSantis says the significant shift in voter registration in recent years is proof that the update was necessary to better reflect the state.

"Florida got shortchanged in the 2020 Census, and we’ve been fighting for fair representation ever since," DeSantis explained to Fox News Digital last month. "Our population has since grown dramatically, and we have moved from a Democrat majority to a 1.5 million Republican advantage. Drawing maps based on race, which is reflected in our current congressional districts, is unconstitutional and should be prohibited."

DeSantis added, "Our new map for 2026 makes good on my promise to conduct mid-decade redistricting, and it more fairly represents the makeup of Florida today.”

The outlook for the Democrats does not look good.

All three lawsuits have been consolidated before Judge Hawkes, and the fight is likely to end at the Florida Supreme Court. There are seven justices on the court, six of whom DeSantis appointed. Despite the odds working against them, the plaintiffs have already filed notices of appeal and signaled they will proceed to trial.

However, even if they somehow managed to succeed, it will likely be too late to change the maps for the upcoming midterm elections in November. Hawkes himself acknowledged in his ruling that the challenge "is more geared toward the 2028 or 2030 election cycles than the 2026 election cycle."

DeSantis' map looks almost certain to hold for the 2026 cycle, and the courts he would face on appeal are largely courts he helped build.