NASA unveiled plans earlier this week for a lunar base as the U.S. finds itself locked in a multi-domain race with China, one that stretches across energy, compute, weapons, drones, trade, rare earths, shipbuilding, and now the Moon.

The next front with Beijing is no longer just about returning humans to the lunar surface. It is about establishing permanent infrastructure, securing access to lunar resources, and eventually determining whether the U.S. or China will set the rules for space in the 2030s and beyond. 

Elon Musk commented on NASA's X release about the new lunar base, saying, "Time to build a major base on the Moon!"

So why the sudden urgency for NASA to establish a lunar base?

A new Mitchell Institute policy report says the U.S. Space Force should prepare to put active-duty Guardians on space stations and eventually on the Moon to counter China's military-led space ambitions.

The paper noted: "With a potential 'in-person' lunar conflict with China as the contextual touchstone, the U.S. must begin a pragmatic, multi-decade effort, leveraging its Space Test Course (STC), as well as partnerships with NASA and commercial space companies, to deliver the skills, tools, and concepts needed for future Title 10 activities to enforce U.S. spacepower-enabling norms and standards." It added, "These efforts will require additional funding from Congress for both U.S. Space Force human spaceflight opportunities and residencies at commercial space stations."

The 22-page policy report frames the Moon as the next great-power battleground, warning that competition over lunar resources, territory, logistics routes, and future space infrastructure could eventually turn into conflict.

"Competition for control of lunar resources and territory will likely reach a tipping point, at which time the modern-day space race could turn into conflict. The anarchic nature of the Moon combined with China's record of belligerent use of hard power yields a predictable future where United States lunar interests are put at risk," the paper warned.

The think tank noted, "U.S. national security, strength, and prosperity are dependent on securing space dominance in ways that require Title 10 authorities, to include space and lunar habitation." 

In other words, astronauts and commercial crews would not have the training, legal authority, or warfighting mandate needed to defend U.S. lunar interests. 

From spy-movie parody Austin Powers ... 

Lunar wars in the 2030s?