As oilprice.com asked earlier this week, why hasn’t oil hit $150 (yet)?
Tonight at 7 PM ET, ZeroHedge will host two former Goldman heavyweights to answer the question: is the recent oil price surge merely a temporary geopolitical shock, or are we entering a period of structurally higher energy prices?
Joining the discussion are former colleagues Jeff Currie, now chief strategy officer for energy pathways at the Carlyle Group, and Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten. The conversation will be hosted by Real Vision's Ash Bennington.
After five potential deals to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and none resulting in a full resumption of traffic, Currie’s betting that it won’t be different this time:
Interesting highlight by Jim Bianco: “If you bought the crude oil collapse every time Trump said the war is over, you made $58, even though the price is only up $27 since the war started.“
Even if it is different this time, Currie has argued that global oil markets were already facing structural supply shortages before tensions with Iran escalated, with years of underinvestment leaving the system increasingly vulnerable to disruptions. In his view, the current conflict has simply accelerated a trend that was already underway, bringing forward a period of sustained higher oil prices that many investors have yet to fully appreciate.
Strait closure + baked in supply constraints, he says, could mean American storage tanks run dry as soon as July 4… just in time for the big 250 celebration.
Murti likewise remains bullish oil. Last October, he joined ZeroHedge for a debate on the price outlook and argued that crude prices were headed higher… a peaceful time when WTI crude sat at $60/barrell. The months that followed validated Murti so let’s see if that happens again.
Together, Currie and Murti will examine whether current oil prices fully reflect the underlying supply picture, how much of today's rally is attributable to Iran, what role U.S. foreign policy may play going forward, and whether investors should prepare for a prolonged period of elevated energy prices.
See you tonight at 7pm ET, here on the ZH homepage, X feed, or YouTube channel.