“泡沫将破”:达利欧警告AI泡沫将如互联网泡沫般破裂,但科技行业仍将屹立不倒
'The Pricking Is Coming': Dalio Warns AI Bubble Will Burst Like Dot-Com, But Tech Will Endure

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pricking-coming-dalio-warns-ai-bubble-will-burst-dot-com-tech-will-endure

桥水基金创始人雷·达里奥近日警告称,当前的人工智能热潮呈现出典型的泡沫特征,包括估值虚高和令人联想到2000年互联网泡沫时期的投机行为。虽然达里奥承认人工智能是一项具有变革意义的技术,但他认为市场目前陷入了一种恶性循环,即企业必须进行高风险的支出以争夺市场份额,从而创造出可能最终面临回调的“账面财富”。 达里奥指出,技术变革往往会引发“丛林法则”,激烈的竞争会导致许多公司倒闭,而无论该技术最终的长期效用如何。他强调,当投资者试图将这种账面财富转化为实际现金时,泡沫就会“破裂”。 相比之下,英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋仍持乐观态度,他强调了为人工智能数据中心提供支持的高带宽芯片产生的巨大需求所带来的“惊人”回报。归根结底,达里奥认为,尽管人工智能泡沫可能会遵循互联网兴起时的繁荣与萧条轨迹,但随着市场波动消退,其背后的底层技术很可能会继续重塑全球经济。

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原文

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio appeared on Bloomberg TV today and delivered a measured yet cautionary assessment of the artificial intelligence investment frenzy. He highlighted classic bubble dynamics - sky-high valuations, rampant speculation, and "paper wealth" vastly outpacing actual cash flows - while drawing direct parallels to the 2000 dot-com era.

"All great technology changes produce bubbles," Dalio said in the Wednesday Bloomberg Television interview. "Nobody can get it exactly right. You have to either spend a ton of money to capture your market share and don't worry about whether it's too much or not, or you don't spend enough money and you lose your market share."

Dalio explained the mechanism of how such a bubble eventually bursts: "The pricking is the converting of wealth into money." He noted that today's AI-driven market is "following that kind of path, even though it is a wonderful technology."

Dalio also hit on the law of the jungle; a lot of companies simply disappear during massive technological upheaval - as competition sorts out the winners and losers - which is separate of the technology's lasting impact. In short, the underlying innovations in AI will continue transforming economies and societies, much as the internet did after its own bubble deflated.

Meanwhile, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just touted "insane" returns for investors willing to bet on the AI boom - with chipmakers notably having been the hottest stocks on Wall Street of late - driven by demand for high-bandwidth chips used in AI data centers and taking the market to record heights.

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