Robotaxi deployments are entering the scaling phase across major U.S. cities as Waymo, Lyft, Tesla, Zoox, and other autonomous vehicle firms push fleets deep into cities.
The autonomous rideshare market remains in its early chapters, but the direction of travel is clear even to the modest observer: robotaxis are moving from the test phase to becoming an increasingly common sight on the roads.
With that comes the general public capturing these robotaxis doing some pretty weird stuff in the wild, such as bottlenecking in a quiet Atlanta neighborhood last month...
And this.
The latest update on commercial AV deployments comes from Goldman analysts led by Eric Sheridan, who told clients these deployments are gaining momentum.
Based on NHTSA crash data from July 2025 through mid-April 2026, along with Waymo and Tesla disclosures on miles and trips, Tesla robotaxis had an accident every 100,000 to 120,000 miles, while Waymo had an accident every 150,000 to 175,000 miles.
Tesla's Austin fleet includes a mix of vehicles with and without safety monitors, while Waymo operates commercially across more cities and has a much larger fleet.
Sheridan estimates that Waymo's fleet size is over 3,800 vehicles (including 577 in Texas), while Tesla's fleet in Texas is around 42 vehicles.
SensorTower data for the US market shows that Waymo's app usage continued to expand in April, though momentum appears to be slowing. Monthly active users rose 20% year over year, a slower pace than in recent months.
Announced current and future deployments
Sheridan's ratings and price targets on robotaxi or robotaxi-aligned companies:
Related:
Increased deployments will likely usher in rising regulatory pressure from local, state, and even federal governments. We wouldn't be surprised if taxi or human drivers revolted at some point. Or at least some left-wing NGO mount a pressure campaign with paid protests.
Federal safety agencies are currently investigating Waymo incidents, New York backed away from allowing commercial robotaxi service this year, and metro areas such as Boston, Seattle, and San Francisco are considering restrictions.
The emerging problem for robotaxi firms is that, even if AVs crash less often per mile than human drivers, highly visible accidents in unusual real-world conditions are becoming a political and regulatory headwind.
Consider this before the next Waymo ride.
Professional subscribers can read the full Robotaxi note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.