Germany's long-running "firewall" that sees the country's legacy parties exclude cooperation with the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is moving further out of step with a large section of the electorate, with new polling showing voters now evenly divided over the governing CDU's refusal to work with the nationalist party.
According to the latest Deutschlandtrend survey by Infratest Dimap for ARD and Welt, 47 percent of Germans now say the CDU's exclusion of cooperation with the AfD is not right, while the same proportion say it is right. That marks a significant shift since September 2024, with opposition to the stance rising by 12 points and support falling by 13 points.
The figures come as the AfD remains Germany's strongest party in the national polling. Infratest Dimap puts the AfD unchanged on 27 percent, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 23 percent, with the Greens on 14 percent, the SPD on 13 percent, and the Left Party on 10 percent. The FDP and BSW would both remain below the five-percent threshold for entering parliament.
The CDU's position still has clearer backing among its own voters, with 62 percent of CDU/CSU supporters saying the exclusion of cooperation with the AfD is right. However, the wider national picture suggests the policy is no longer backed by a clear public majority.
The east-west divide is particularly stark on the AfD question. In western Germany, a narrow majority still supports excluding cooperation with the AfD, 50 percent in favor to 45 percent against. In the east, where the AfD has built some of its strongest support, a clear majority opposes the CDU's stance, 58 percent against to 38 percent in favor.
The poll also points to a deeper crisis of confidence in Germany's established parties. Only half of respondents said they support their preferred party out of conviction, while 46 percent said their choice was driven by disappointment with the alternatives. When the same question was asked in 2018, 61 percent said conviction was the main reason for their party preference.
That disappointment is especially pronounced among AfD voters. The poll found that 57 percent of AfD supporters are motivated primarily by frustration with other parties, although the party also scores strongly on its political program among its own base.
The findings come after a series of strong results and polling boosts for the AfD, particularly in eastern Germany. Last month, AfD politician René Stadtkewitz won a snap mayoral election in Zehdenick, Brandenburg, with 58.4 percent of the vote, becoming the party's first directly elected full-time mayor in the state. Separate regional polling has also shown the party on the cusp of absolute majorities in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has presented the trend as part of a broader political realignment, writing after earlier polling gains: "The political shift is inevitable - we will put the interests of our country and our citizens back at the forefront!"
The pressure on the CDU is being intensified by deep dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the federal government. According to the Deutschlandtrend figures cited by Welt, only 16 percent of Germans are satisfied with Merz's performance, while 82 percent are dissatisfied. Overall, just 12 percent are satisfied or very satisfied with the federal government, compared with 87 percent who are less satisfied or not satisfied at all.
Economic pessimism is also weighing heavily on the political landscape. The economy is now the top issue for voters, ahead of refugees and migration. Only 13 percent describe Germany's economic situation as good, while 85 percent rate it as less good or bad. Just six percent expect to be better off in a year's time, while 38 percent expect things to worsen.