中国人民银行的人民币汇率波动令交易者感到困惑
PBOC's Yuan Flip-Flop Sows Confusion Among Traders

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pbocs-yuan-flip-flop-sows-confusion-among-traders

彭博社的约翰·刘 (John Liu) 和郑武 (Zheng Wu) 报道称: 1. 中国人民银行(PBOC)使用熟悉的工具来升值人民币并阻止其贬值,引起投资者的困惑。 这涉及对货币设定更强有力的定价,导致一些交易员认为国有银行将美元抛售到境内。 尽管此举安抚了外汇市场,但由于参考利率弱于预期而导致早些时候出现抛售,因此引发了人们对中国央行意图的质疑。 对人民币大幅贬值的担忧暂时缓解,但不确定性仍然很高。 人民币汇率接近允许范围内的最低水平,中国人民银行继续抛售美元以支持人民币,具体数量不详。 然而,中国央行模棱两可的信息引起了市场的担忧,如果政策限制放松,人民币汇率可能会更加波动。 2. 中国国家主席习近平关于货币工具的言论引发了讨论,但并不意味着转向量化宽松。 习近平在新书中建议央行应买卖更多国债,以完善市场管理。 分析人士认为,这意味着习近平主张进行调整,而不是进行重大干预。 尽管有通过降低利率或准备金率进一步放松政策的空间,但中国央行不太可能很快诉诸量化宽松。 如果央行进行债券交易,这些行动主要是为了控制收益率。 3. 小米首款电动汽车上市后,周四在美国股价飙升 12%,发布后仅 27 分钟内预订量就突破 5 万辆。 由于销量下降以及中美之间关税紧张局势加剧,特斯拉和比亚迪等竞争对手在中国削减产量,竞争格局十分严峻,2023 年前几个月,中国对欧洲的电动汽车出口大幅下降。

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原文

By John Liu and Zheng Wu, Bloomberg Markets Live reporters and analysts

1. The use of a familiar tool to stabilize the yuan sowed confusion and touched off a debate among investors. The People’s Bank of China stepped in to halt a drop in the currency last week by strengthening the fixing, and traders said state-owned banks then proceeded to dumped dollars onshore.

The move helped to stabilize the foreign-exchange market but it also left traders wondering about the People’s Bank of China’s intentions. Investors were baffled because the yuan’s earlier selloff had been triggered by a weaker-than-expected reference rate.

Authorities have allayed fears of a steep decline in the currency for now. The yuan is trading near the weak end of the band allowed by the reference rate, and state banks are selling an undisclosed amount of dollars to prop up the Chinese currency.

But the PBOC’s mixed signals have unsettled the market and the yuan may become even more volatile if policymakers relax their grip on it again.

2. Xi Jinping’s remarks on monetary tools generated a buzz but they’re unlikely to signal a move toward quantitative easing. The Chinese leader was quoted in a newly published book as saying the central bank should increase the buying and selling of government bonds, fueling speculation that Beijing was planning to embark on aggressive monetary easing.

A closer examination of the context in which the comments were made suggests otherwise. Xi was probably expressing a view on how the PBOC can fine-tune its market operations, not ramp up purchases of government bonds to flood the economy with liquidity, according to Bloomberg Economics.

There is still room for the PBOC to ease policy by lowering interest rates or the required reserve ratio. On the whole, the central bank is likely to exhaust all conventional tools before resorting to QE, and any move to trade government bonds will probably be part of efforts to better manage the sovereign yield curve.

3. Xiaomi’s stock surged 12% in the US on Thursday after the Chinese smartphone and appliance maker launched its first electric vehicle. With aggressive pricing, pre-orders for the SU7 models topped 50,000 within 27 minutes of their debut.

Xiaomi’s ambitious EV bet arrives at a challenging time. Carmakers from Tesla Inc. to BYD Co. are engaging in a price war as sales growth slows, with the former recently cutting production at its plant in China.  To make matters worse, trade tensions are compounding the pressure on the highly competitive sector. China’s EV exports to the European Union slumped in the first two month of the year amid a probe by Brussels into unfair subsidies.

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