Goldman shared some of their thoughts on the tightening of power markets as the decade comes to a close. ERCOT’s own Preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast now sees baseline peak-summer demand (excluding most medium and large loads) growing at a 5.2% average annual rate from 2026 through 2030. This is already well above the 3.4% realized average of 2022-2025.
Layer in the medium- and large-scale additions, overwhelmingly data centers plus crypto and industrial electrification, and the forecast explodes to 31% average annual peak-summer growth.
Put that in national context and Texas alone would account for 39% of total U.S. peak-summer power demand by 2030, up from just 11% last year, assuming the rest of the country continues its slower recent trajectory.
Goldman analysts flag a 200 GW queue of large-load applications sitting with the grid operator. Even if only 10% of that queue ultimately energizes, it would still lift the region’s demand growth rate above 9% against an expected 6% annual increase in effective generation capacity over the same window. That math points to a high probability of a critically tight market unless supply-side responses accelerate sharply in the next few years.
A quick look at Goldman's recent nuclear report for last month shows the large grid-scale reactor industry is still sleeping in the US…
Earlier we highlighted ERCOT’s disclosure that multiple clusters of proposed hyperscale loads and crypto facilities failed voltage ride-through testing. Four of those groups alone could shed more than 5,000 MW (Boston-sized chunks of demand) during routine transmission disturbances. That is the demand-side mirror of the Spain blackout dynamics we referenced, where rapid disconnections and inadequate reactive power support turned a manageable event into a cascading failure.
ERCOT is not alone in upgrading its outlook. PJM lifted its 10-year average annual peak-summer demand growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.6% earlier this year. MISO raised its 20-year view from 1.6% to 2% in April, more than doubling its realized 2022-2025 average of 0.8%.
These changes reflect the same AI-driven commercial load surge now visible in the data. Goldman shows the U.S. commercial sector posting the strongest year-over-year power demand growth in January-February at +1.8%, while industrial and residential lagged. Nationally, data-center capacity additions are accelerating, with Texas, Virginia, Arizona, Ohio, Indiana, and Georgia leading the way on a year-over-year basis.
On the generation side, the picture is mixed. Solar continues its seasonal ramp with solid year-over-year capacity additions.
Natural gas-fired output has been responsive. But nuclear has been weaker due to maintenance outages, hydro is suffering from drought across more than half the country, and coal remains under pressure.
Construction employment tied to data-center and utility work is rising sharply, which is welcome, but employment is not the same as energized megawatts and reinforced lines.
We noted flags starting to pop up regarding the lack of construction industry manpower back in October…
And we also noted other analysts starting to recognize the same body count issue – the lack of engineers and other skilled laborers to build the energy generating side of the grid.