Ahead of the SpaceX IPO, Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Tony Jones published a note on space propellant economics and identified an industrial-gases giant that is well positioned to dominate the market for rocket propellants and mission-critical launch gases as SpaceX's Starship launch cadence gains momentum and the broader space economy is set to double by 2035.
Jones and his team reiterated their "Buy" rating on Linde and raised their 12-month price target to $560 from $550, telling clients on Wednesday that the company has built a deep moat in the industrial gases business after powering America's rocket launches for the past six decades.
The team at the equity research arm of Rothschild & Co Redburn sees SpaceX's Starship as a "further demand accelerator," with higher launch cadence and heavier propellant loads creating a new growth lever for Linde's mission-critical gases business.
Jones estimates Linde generated just under $4 million of revenue per average space launch in 2025. By 2028, that number could approach $6 million as Starship launches are set to increase dramatically, driving demand for liquid oxygen, nitrogen, helium, cryogenic services, rare gases, and capacity fees.
Main points from the note:
1. White Space. Linde has fuelled NASA for c60 years and now has capex set to ramp alongside SpaceX's Starbase. We delve into the economics and like what we see. Space sales are c2% group but could scale rapidly, as Starlink's ecosystem forms.
2. Starship: a further demand accelerator. The transition to Starship as a dominant vehicle could transform the opportunity, burning c10x the oxygen of a Falcon 9 launch. Linde's revenue per launch could near $6m by 2028, from under $4m in 2025. This comes on top of potentially exponential launch cadence.
3. Project and EPS optionality. Linde's space capex falls outside its gas backlog, lacking take-or-pay status. However, contracts seem likely and we see the backlog revised up as a clear valuation catalyst. EPS growth could accelerate (Fig 1). Linde is a rock-solid business with top-quartile management. We increase our 12-month PT to $560 per share (from $550) and reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Linde's earnings growth could accelerate if several growth levers hit at the same time...
Starship dominates propellant gas usage among space vehicle types this year.
"SpaceX has indicated that the 140 to 160 launches planned for 2026 will be almost all Falcon 9 flights. Starship launches will likely be test flights only, with the major milestone to successfully reach optimal range," Jones noted.
Linde revenue per average space launch – 2025
Linde revenue per average space launch – 2028
Musk has previously stated, "Starship should be doing >1000 Earth orbit flights per year by 2028. That is still low compared to what's needed to build a self-sustaining city on Mars and secure the future of consciousness."
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