While there was little doubt as to SpaceX's actual IPO price, which due to its novel structure was always going to be $135, and unlike the proposed IPO price ranges as is customary for other initial offerings, moments ago SpaceX (SPCX) made it official when it filed a free writing prospectus (FWP) which confirmed the company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, for a total size of $75 billion (excluding the greenshoe), making history with the biggest-ever IPO, launching it into the top ranks of the largest public companies and putting founder Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the world’s first trillionaire. For context, SpaceX is more than double the size of the previous largest IPO - Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019. The SpaceX registration statement was declared effective June 11. The details of the pricing are shown below.
At $135, SpaceX will have a market value of $1.77 trillion. Accounting for employee stock options and restricted share units, the pricing gives it a fully diluted valuation of about $1.8 trillion. SpaceX’s market value will rank it among the top 10 public companies globally, and make it larger even than Musk’s own Tesla. According to Polymarket, there is a 84% chance the IPO closes above its offering price tomorrow, and a 46% chance it rises more than 20%.
SpaceX, which made a net loss of $4.9bn in 2025, is made up of three businesses: space exploration, including its Falcon and Starship rockets; connectivity, such as its Starlink satellite constellation providing high-speed internet access; and artificial intelligence, though its xAI division.
Musk’s fan base in the retail trading community is a crucial component of the deal: they have placed more than $100 billion in orders for the stock, Bloomberg reported, far more than the 20% of shares that had been reserved for them.
Yet not everyone is so excited. Noted short-seller James Chanos on Wednesday called it “a hopes-and-dreams IPO” driven by enthusiasm for Musk and artificial intelligence rather than the fundamentals of a company that has yet to post a profit.
“The total addressable market for space is infinite,” Chanos, founder of Chanos & Co., said at the iConnections Global Alts conference in New York on Wednesday. “You can build whatever stories you want — colonies on Mars, factories on the moon, data centers in space — to justify the valuation.”
Investment research group Morningstar calculated that SpaceX is worth only $63 a share – half the IPO price – and warns there is “a major disconnect between market expectations and underlying fundamentals”.
Michael Field, the chief equity strategist at Morningstar, suggests investors should sit out the IPO and wait for “a more attractive entry point down the line”.
“We believe the business has real strengths, particularly in Starlink, but with so many unknown and untested technologies underpinning much of the valuation price, particularly within the AI business, we think the valuation is extremely speculative,” Field said.
Still, coupled with rule changes that could fast track the stock into benchmark gauges like the Nasdaq-100 Index (if not the S&P where there will be at least a one year delay), demand from passive funds and retail investors unable to buy at the IPO price should set the stage for a solid cohort of buyers for shares of the rocket, satellite and AI company once they start trading.
“It’s probably the most hopeful IPO,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, adding that she doesn’t buy IPOs. Buyers of SpaceX “want to be part of the future,” she said. “And I think that’s oddly hopeful in this time when we’re moving between the poles of greed and fear.”
As Bloomberg notes, SpaceX is the first of three major IPOs expected to capitalize on stock investors’ appetite for the leading AI companies, a seemingly insatiable demand that has propelled benchmark US indexes to records this year despite the acceleration in inflation and economic disruption caused by the war in Iran. Anthropic PBC and OpenAI, two of the company’s AI competitors, are expected to go public as soon as this year and could seek valuations of more than $1 trillion each, so the performance of SpaceX’s stock will be as closely scrutinized by Silicon Valley venture capitalists as it is by Wall Street traders. The deluge of public equity, on top of an $85 billion equity offering from Alphabet Inc. and the potential for other big-tech firms to follow suit, is triggering a debate over whether there is enough investor demand to meet the incoming supply.
“It’s a big deal as a kind of precursor for Anthropic and OpenAI,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. “When I look at all three of those and the amount of capital that these companies are raising, it tells me that the demand for AI is still very strong even though we’ve seen more volatility. And I think some of that volatility in the market has been positioning around the expectations for these IPOs.”
A successful showing in public markets would make Musk a trillionaire, and his wealth could boom even further if he meets performance-based conditions for awards of as many as 1.3 billion additional class B shares in aggregate, split into tranches. It would be no small feat to earn all those shares. The company’s market capitalization needs to reach $7.5 trillion, it will have to complete non-Earth-based data centers capable of delivering 100 terawatts of computing power per year, and establish a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants.
Musk, who won’t be able to sell any shares until a year after the start of trading, is expected to control 84% of the voting power after the IPO. His control over SpaceX’s governance includes effectively being able to choose the board members, which means only he can remove himself as CEO.
And now that the pricing is done, we wait for the actual stock to break for trading tomorrow - with the usual several hour delay - at which point we will see if it was wise for SpaceX to issue such a small float with such a large retail participation. Notably, according to Polymarket, the odds that the IPO closes with a market cap above $2.2 trillion