Whether consumers are ordering from Uber Eats or DoorDash, delivery costs before tips now average roughly $8 to $10 per order. Add in the tip, and the basic meal for one at Chipotle, such as a burrito bowl, moves into unaffordable territory for many working-class folks. The result is that food delivery, once pitched as a mass-market convenience, is increasingly looking like a discretionary luxury.
Barclays internet equity analyst Ross Sandler penned a note on Wednesday titled "Autonomous Food Delivery Likely Hits Critical Mass By 2030," covering how automation in last-mile delivery could push delivery costs down to as little as $1 per order.
"The promise of autonomous food delivery is still a few years out, but showing very positive signals in markets that have been quick to embrace it. AVs should reduce the cost of delivery for both marketplaces (currently $8-$10 per order) and for consumers (tipping, $5 per order) down to as low as $1 per order," Sandler wrote in the note.
He continued, "As witnessed already in select APAC geos with low delivery costs, when this kind of improvement happens to the cost curve, consumer adoption should go through the roof. China's online food delivery penetration is 40% of orders in tier one cities, well ahead of the US, with cost being the biggest delta.
"UBER and DASH have a number of strategies in place in both SDR (sidewalk delivery robotics) and drones, but claim that these efforts are not likely to hit a material percentage of orders until 2030 and beyond."
The analyst sees "sidewalk delivery robots as the nearer-term opportunity. Current costs are around $5 to $7 per drop, but could fall toward $1 over time as utilization improves. Drones offer faster delivery and a larger "wow" factor, but regulatory hurdles, battery limitations and airspace approvals make the path more complicated."
Automated last-mile food delivery will certaintly improve the economics, and the added benefit is no tip.
Once delivery costs plummet, likely by the end of the decade, improved affordability should drive more people to order restaurant meals at home.
All of this is welcome news from Sandler's team at Barclays, but delivery costs are unlikely to decline meaningfully until automation is added to the last-mile process. Even then, the path to $1 delivery fees with no tip won't be frictionless. Local politicians and regulators could slow the adoption of automation with policies because voters will revolt over job displacement. Still, the benefit is obvious: cheaper delivery and no tip required, something almost everyone can agree on.
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