Qatar shut the world's largest LNG facility early in the U.S.-Iran war after Iranian Shahed one-way attack drones struck critical energy infrastructure, triggering chaos across global gas markets, just as the Hormuz maritime chokepoint was shuttered.
Now, with a U.S.-Iran peace deal set to formally reopen the waterway by Friday, there is encouraging news on the supply side: According to Bloomberg News, Qatar is preparing to rapidly restart LNG production, a move that could help ease the global supply crunch and accelerate the normalization of energy flows.
Sources tell the outlet that QatarEnergy has been preparing for a fast restart since April by testing equipment, performing maintenance and keeping some production trains running at reduced levels. The restart timeline now stands at 50% capacity within one month and about 80% within two months - well ahead of earlier timelines.
A full recovery of QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex, which exported almost 20% of global supply last year, could take years after parts of the facility were damaged by Iranian drones and missiles in the first few weeks of the conflict in March. The return of Qatari LNG would help ease a global supply crunch; however, commodity analyst Jack Prandelli pointed out on X:
Here's what those headlines will miss:
- 80% is not 100%.
- And it never will be ...not for years. Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan damaged 2 full liquefaction trains.
- 17% of Qatar's total LNG capacity. That's 12.8 million tonnes per year gone for 3 to 5 years minimum.
- Before the war, Qatar supplied roughly one fifth of all global LNG trade. Europe and Asia were heavily dependent on those cargoes. When Ras Laffan went dark, European gas prices jumped 40-50% in weeks. Asian buyers scrambled.
- Now Qatar comes back but permanently smaller.
Related:
The return of Qatari LNG is a promising sign for easing the physical supply crunch in energy markets. But with normalization in supplies expected to take years, U.S. LNG exports have plugged the supply gap by maximizing liquefaction capacity and tightening vessel loading schedules in recent months.