S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record highs despite yesterday’s post-Fed freakout. Risk-on is still in fashion as investors remain hopeful of a lasting U.S.-Iran peace. Though the question remains: Is the rally sustainable or are markets poised for a painful reversal before year-end?
Tonight at 7pm ET, Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money hosts a debate between two of Wall Street's closely followed technical strategists: Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at BTIG, and Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat.
Bull Case (Newton):
Newton sees the upward trend in tech/AI continuing higher, which will lift the broader market into 2027… even if there’s a little chop.
While he expects periods of volatility and some consolidation, easing energy prices and continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure will support further gains into year-end, even in the already-lofty tech/AI trade. With oil retreating sharply from wartime highs and investors increasingly focused on the long-term productivity benefits of AI (economic benefits that are real and not merely a bubble), Newton sees pullbacks as opportunities.
Oil was sent sharply lower on the news of a ceasefire, something Newton sees continuing into year end in the broader energy sector:
Bear Case (Krinsky):
Krinsky has maintained a more cautious stance as equities push further into historically stretched territory.
While the recent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk appetite and eased inflation concerns, Krinsky has argued recently that elevated valuations, particularly in tech, are due for a correction at some point… especially with a seemingly hawkish fed. Krinsky has also pointed to the recent decoupling of bond yields and oil prices, having risen in tandem until post-peace deal where yields continued rising (possibly Fed-related) while oil tanked.
Recent gains have been driven largely by AI-related technology shares, semiconductors, and the Magnificent Seven, while many other areas of the market have failed to keep pace. Both Newton and Krinsky agree on this, though only one sees it as fuel to further propel markets higher… the other sees a ticking time bomb.
Both panelists rely on technicals and regularly change their market outlooks based on data. Neither guest is a perma-bull or bear… so no broken clocks tonight.
Tune in tonight at 7pm ET on the ZH homepage, X Feed, and Youtube channel to watch live to see how they’re looking at Iran, Fed chair Warsh, and markets.