毁灭即估值的理由。
The Doom Justifies the Valuation

原始链接: https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2026/06/21/the-doom-justifies-the-valuation.html

作者批评了湾区当前的科技文化,将其称为一种由无神论享乐主义和自恋狂热所驱动的“精神病毒”。他们认为,该行业的领导者已经放弃了真正的技术进步,转而制造“人工智能末日”叙事,以证明其虚高的估值并获取资本。 通过对比 GLM-5.2 等模型直接且专注于工程的文档,与 Anthropic 博客中散布恐惧的言论,作者认为当前的人工智能话语是一场故意为之、由炒作驱动的恐慌,旨在绕过现实。通过将人工智能描绘成一种生存威胁,支持者们制造了一个无休止的末日媒体报道循环,以转移人们对其当前缺乏实质性效用的关注。 文章最后将这些危言耸听的趋势斥为一种转瞬即逝的泡沫,类似于过去社会性的歇斯底里,并表达了对一个负责任且可持续未来的期许。作者呼吁转变视角——摒弃“全面性的末日宣传”,转而关注如何防止此类行业扭曲现实,并建立一个植根于实际技术能力而非假设性末世论的经济体。

这篇 Hacker News 的讨论聚焦于围绕 Sam Altman 和 Dario Amodei 等人所宣扬的“AI 末日论”的质疑。许多评论者认为,AI 公司正通过基于恐惧的公关策略,将自身塑造为不可或缺的行业规则制定者和主导者,从而推高估值并吸引投资者。多位用户将这种“末日论”定性为一种经过精心策划的营销手段——即“雾件”——旨在使这些公司处于政策辩论的中心,并借此构筑竞争壁垒。 反之,一些参与者反驳了这种愤世嫉俗的观点,认为这是一种对复杂且多面技术过于简化的解读。他们认为 AI 领域并非非黑即白:AI 既可能在某些方面被过度炒作,也可能在其他方面带来真正的变革。该讨论的批评者认为,将整个行业全盘否定为一场投机炒作,忽视了当前模型的现实效用,也忽略了引导人工智能未来发展所需的审慎考量。
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原文

I’ve been in Berkeley for the last 2 weeks. I haven’t really been back here for a while, and it’s worse than you can believe. This is a cult of atheistic hedonists needing AI doom to be true to justify their life choices. Or acceleration. Or something. They need to make impact. I mean, narcissism of small differences to an extent, but I stopped long before these people did. If San Francisco was nuked tomorrow, the world would feel a weight off their shoulders. 内卷

This isn’t technology, this is a mind virus. New York wants a couple basis points so they can maintain their lifestyle, Los Angeles wants a bit of your attention so they can feel famous, SF wants to come for your inner life and pimp you out and mediate every interaction and there’s not even a so.

Read the GLM-5.2 blog post. This is how I imagined AI progress being, and this is frontier stuff, the model is on par with Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5. It’s a pleasant technical look into how things are slowly improving. This is what comma blog posts look like also. This is the world of technology I love.


Now look at the Anthropic blog. It looks totally different. From this post: AI is advancing at exponential speed, and the policymaking process was built for a slower world. And this one: …recursive self-improvement is not inevitable. But it could come sooner than most institutions are prepared for.

It’s all just nonsensical hype, it’s not about technology. It’s a questionable promise of future technology. The reason they can’t just write technical blog posts is that the current technology doesn’t justify the valuation. From schizoposting:

The only possible conclusion is that it’s designed to cause panic. In fact, it is optimized for it: there is no possible framing of the actual product(s) that could possibly induce more psychological spiraling in the media and its audience. “The AI Apocalypse?” has provided a yearslong news cycle and an infinite spawner of contrived Discourse, which has primarily served to contextualize the AI industry’s valuation around not reality but hypothetical future value—i.e. a baseless assertion of infinite growth between the lines of a public-facing eschatology.

Something is really wrong with the current system if this is how it needs to make you feel to continue operating. How can we stop this from happening next time? How can we enforce consequences on the people who did this? 摆烂

The adults in the room are starting to call BS on the “AI is gonna take everyone’s jobs” thing. How much longer does this bubble have? And like most cults when the end times don’t come they are just going to fade out and everyone forgets. No accountability. Remember when everyone died during COVID? And when we finally ended racism during DEI? Can someone write an AI 2027 but instead of some totalizing doom propaganda it talks about the bubble unwinding and what we can do to prevent this kind of crap in the future? How do we build an economy and society that’s sustainable?

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