马克·扎克伯格希望 Meta 推出自己的预测市场。
Mark Zuckerberg wants Meta to launch its own prediction market

原始链接: https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/23/mark-zuckerberg-wants-meta-to-launch-its-own-prediction-market/

据报道,Meta 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格正在开发一款名为“Arena”的实验性预测市场应用。与 Polymarket 等平台不同,Arena 将作为一款非货币的积分制游戏运行,但 Meta 未来可能会引入真实货币功能。该应用将独立运作,但会利用 Meta 的社交媒体生态系统来获取用户。 此举正值预测市场经历动荡式增长之际。尽管 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等平台交易量巨大,并吸引了 X 等公司的合作,但该行业深陷法律和道德争议。问题包括公众人物涉嫌内幕交易、州监管机构对赌博法的审查,以及涉及联邦政府的复杂诉讼。通过进入这一领域,Meta 正将自己置于这个高增长但法律风险极高的行业中心。

近期有报道称,Meta 计划推出自己的预测市场,此举在 Hacker News 上引发了广泛的质疑。 评论者们对马克·扎克伯格的领导力持批判态度,常将其策略描述为对科技趋势的盲目跟风——从元宇宙到人工智能,再到如今的预测市场。许多用户认为 Meta 缺乏原创创新,将其定位为一家榨取型垄断企业,并指出该公司在复制其早期社交媒体的成功方面举步维艰。 尽管有人承认 Meta 近期的智能眼镜确实存在市场需求,但整体舆论倾向负面。批评者认为,公司频繁的转型让员工感到沮丧,也证明了领导团队是在“追逐热点”。此外,一些用户对在 Meta 的年轻用户群中引入类似博彩的机制表示担忧。归根结底,这些讨论反映了一种普遍观点:扎克伯格无法接受自己仅作为广告平台缔造者的身份,转而不断进行那些鲜有产出且缺乏持续性产品的“支线任务”。
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原文

Mark Zuckerberg is betting that prediction markets are the future.

The New York Times reports that Zuck wants Meta to have its own Polymarket-like smartphone app and has given the go-ahead to develop one, internally calling it “Arena.” The app would be independent of Meta’s other social media offerings, although sources told the paper that those social sites could direct users to engagement with the app.

Sources said the current concept for Arena can be described as “experimental but a top priority,” and it weirdly wouldn’t involve money. Instead, it would essentially be a video game where users would earn points for betting correctly on particular topics. The sources added that money could be added later.

Over the past year, prediction markets have fueled big profits and controversy. As of April, trading volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi had reached tens of billions of dollars. Other social media sites — like X (which forged a partnership with Polymarket last summer) — have sought to capitalize on the industry.

Legal cases have also spiked. A notable case involves a former high-ranking special forces soldier who was accused of using insider knowledge to profit from the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. George Santos is also currently under investigation over alleged Kalshi trades.

States have also begun to sue prediction markets over what they allege are violations of gambling laws. To complicate things further, the current administration, which is decidedly pro-prediction market, has sued states for having sued prediction markets.

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