WTI futures briefly fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted, as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are showing further signs of normalization and physical market tightness continues to ease.
Bloomberg noted that option markets are positioning for ongoing normalization. Put volume is exceeding calls, with some of the heaviest trading in August and September expiries between $60 and $68. The September $60 strike put is one of the most active contracts, along with August $60, $65, and $68 strike puts. This only signals that traders are positioning for more downside as the war risk premium in crude oil evaporates.
This is why:
Earlier today, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the audience at the Reuters Global Energy Forum that roughly 72 ships carrying about 20 million barrels of crude moved through the strait over the past 24 hours. That figure is roughly one-fifth of global daily consumption.
"I could say roughly 72 ships in the last 24 hours, and 20 million barrels of oil," Wright told the audience in New York. "We have normal flows today."
He noted that even if the interim peace deal between the US and Iran fails, Tehran no longer has the ability to close Hormuz, saying the Trump administration has eroded one of Iran’s key points of leverage.
"Iran will not have the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz going forward. That's a critical thing, that's their key leverage, and we're taking that leverage away from them," he added.
We pointed this out on Tuesday morning:
Wright said some ships are choosing not to transit the narrow waterway due to naval mine risks, instead moving close to Iran’s coast or along the southern route near Oman with military escorts. He said that full navigation could take several more weeks.
"To return to complete normalcy takes a demining of the strait, probably a few weeks' effort," he said.
Tehran’s leverage will all but disappear in the coming years as Gulf producers and oil majors are set to expand a network of pipelines and export routes that bypass the Hormuz chokepoint entirely, building on existing infrastructure designed to neutralize the risk. Read the full report.