India is set to import a record-high volume of Russian crude in June as the Hormuz crisis and the U.S. waivers on Russia’s barrels have pushed the world’s third-largest crude importer to gorge on Moscow’s oil again, OilPrice reported.

India has imported 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil so far in June, according to preliminary vessel-tracking data from commodity analytics firm Kpler cited by Indian media.

So far this month, Russian crude has accounted for as much as 53.5% of all Indian oil imports, per the data.   

India’s full-month imports of Russian crude are set for a record-high of 2.35 million bpd in June for any month ever, Kpler has estimated. This would exceed the previous record of 2.2 million bpd from May 2023. 

Going forward, Russian crude will remain a key source of supply for India even if the U.S. does not extend the waiver for Russian crude already loaded on tankers, analysts say. Which is odd because when viewed from the other side, the picture is a mirror image: as shown in the chart below, Russian crude oil exports to India have reportedly plunged to just 555kb/d in the last week, the lowest volume in 4 years.

In other words, there is a disconnect in the data. 

In any case, last week, as it announced the memorandum of understanding with Iran, the U.S. quietly let the waiver on Russian oil sales expire without renewing it.

“India’s imports remained strong through June, supported by continued discounts and steady refinery demand,” Sumit Ritolia, manager, modelling and refining at Kpler, told Financial Express.

“Regardless of whether the US waiver is extended, we expect India’s imports of Russian crude to remain robust, even if not at record-high levels.”

India turned en masse to Russian oil in 2022, when the U.S. and the EU imposed sanctions on Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine. Four years later, India is a major buyer of Russia’s crude, and Russia is India’s single-largest oil supplier.

As supply from the Middle East crashes, India is also buying growing volumes of crude from West African producers Nigeria and Angola, as well as from South American producers Brazil and Venezuela.