Tesla could be on track to deliver a stronger than expected second quarter, according to a new research note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu and his automotive team.
The firm now expects Tesla to report approximately 416,000 vehicle deliveries during the second quarter of 2026. That estimate is about 10,000 vehicles above the company compiled consensus and sits modestly ahead of most Wall Street expectations, which generally range between 413,000 and 420,000 deliveries.
If Deutsche Bank's forecast proves accurate, Tesla would post delivery growth of 16% from the first quarter and 8% from the same period a year ago. The results would mark a meaningful rebound following a weaker start to the year. According to the analysts, international markets are doing most of the heavy lifting.
Europe is expected to be Tesla's strongest region, with deliveries rising nearly 40% from a year ago. Deutsche Bank believes improving demand across the region is the primary reason the company is on pace to outperform expectations.
China is also expected to contribute to the stronger quarter, although growth there is forecast to be much more modest at roughly 3% year over year. Registration data through May tracked close to 74,000 vehicles, while the bank estimates total second quarter deliveries from China will reach approximately 133,000 units. June order activity has also remained solid, with roughly 40,000 orders recorded through June 21. Deutsche Bank believes there is enough time left in the quarter for deliveries to reach its estimate.
North America remains the weakest part of Tesla's business. The bank expects deliveries in the region to decline about 21% from the same quarter last year. Even so, volumes are still projected to improve about 7% compared with the first quarter, suggesting conditions have stabilized somewhat despite softer demand.
Beyond the quarter itself, Deutsche Bank remains constructive on Tesla's full year outlook. The firm believes the company can deliver roughly 1.63 million vehicles during 2026, which would keep annual deliveries essentially flat even without a meaningful contribution from any new vehicle models.
The report suggests Tesla may not need a major product launch to stabilize sales this year. Instead, stronger demand in Europe combined with resilient performance in China could be enough to offset continued weakness in North America.
Investors will now be watching Tesla's official delivery report to see whether the company's international strength is enough to produce another quarter that comes in ahead of expectations.