All deal terms sourced from SEC filings, official government press releases, and the Council on Foreign Relations Government Deal Tracker (cfr.org, April 22, 2026). xLight terms from Commerce Dept / NIST press release (December 2, 2025) and Manufacturing Dive. Quantum deals from NIST press release (May 21, 2026). DFC ceiling from Congress.gov (P.L. 119-60). MP Materials from SEC 8-K (July 10, 2025). Intel from SEC 8-K (August 22, 2025). Not investment advice.

There is a number that should change how you think about American industrial policy.

That is the gap between how much the US government has deployed in direct equity investments at $23.9 billion across twenty-six confirmed deals and the maximum ceiling it is now legally allowed to invest: $205 billion. The CFR Government Deal Tracker now logs 17 pre-quantum deals. Nine more were added in a single week when Washington took equity stakes in nine quantum computing companies on May 21, 2026.

Washington is operating like a sovereign wealth fund. It just hasn’t announced it in those terms.

The playbook has shifted from grant-maker to shareholder with breathtaking speed.

• The government has taken a 15% stake in America’s only rare earth miner.

• A 9.9% stake in Intel. An equity stake in xLight, a startup building a laser system to challenge ASML’s near-monopoly on EUV lithography.

• Minority positions in nine quantum computing companies.

• A participation interest in Westinghouse’s nuclear programme.

• A golden share in U.S. Steel.

Private co-investors including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs have put an additional $4.75 billion alongside government capital. The Emirati sovereign wealth fund ADQ has joined minerals deals. And more is coming.

The question is no longer whether Washington will invest in commercial companies. It already does. The question is which sectors come next — and who the public-market proxies are.

Most people think of government support as grants. Write a check, take no ownership, hope it works. That model still exists, but since 2025 Washington has layered two additional tools on top that are fundamentally different.

Tool 1: Direct equity. The government becomes a shareholder through preferred stock, common stock, or warrants. It participates in upside if the company’s value rises. The Intel stake, the L3Harris stake, the xLight stake and the quantum deals. This makes the programme categorically different from anything Washington has done since the 2008 bank bailouts.

Tool 2: Grants and loans. The traditional toolkit, deployed alongside equity to stack incentives. CHIPS Act R&D grants, DoE loan programs and the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit. These run underneath the equity positions.

Tool 3: Off-take agreements and price floors. The most powerful and least discussed tool. Instead of just giving a company money, the government buys its output at a guaranteed minimum price, securing massive revenue streams for years into the future. MP Materials’ 10-year NdPr price floor at $110 per kilogram is the flagship example. The government has not just hoped MP succeeds, it has contractually guaranteed the economics of success. (As expected the stock has soared high more than doubling in price since deal signing)

Equity + grants + price floor/off-take creates a national champion structure. The government becomes co-owner, co-funder, and guaranteed customer simultaneously. No private-sector competitor anywhere is competing against all three at once.

One more layer most coverage ignores: the government has mobilised an additional $4.75 billion in private co-investment, with J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others participating alongside government capital. The Emirati sovereign wealth fund ADQ and Japanese investors have also joined specific deals.

The Development Finance Corporation (DFC) is the US government’s development bank. Its maximum investment ceiling was $60 billion under the original BUILD Act. In December 2025, Congress passed the DFC Modernization and Reauthorization Act of 2025 (P.L. 119-60). It raised the ceiling to $205 billion, extended DFC’s authority to domestic investments under the Defense Production Act, and authorized a new $5 billion equity revolving fund at Treasury. *

*(Source: Congress.gov; CSIS, February 10, 2026)

The DFC has already executed three equity transactions — in critical minerals, healthcare, and infrastructure. The transactions confirmed in healthcare and infrastructure company names and deal terms not publicly disclosed as of May 2026, so we will not be covering them in this article.

$23.9 billion deployed across 26 confirmed deals. $205 billion legal ceiling. That is $181 billion of remaining capacity, authorized by Congress, operationally ready, and looking for the right sectors.

A note on the count: The CFR Government Deal Tracker now logs 17 equity and quasi-equity deals, the 16 originally published on April 22, 2026, plus the subsequently added L3Harris munitions deal. Nine quantum deals were announced May 21, 2026. Total confirmed: 26 deals, approximately $23.9 billion deployed. Private co-investors have contributed an additional $4.75 billion alongside. Some deal terms remain partially undisclosed.

MP Materials NYSE: MP 0.00%↑ is the centerpiece. In July 2025, the Department of Defense took a 15% stake via $400 million in Series A Preferred Stock. The DoD also committed up to $350 million in additional preferred stock, a $150 million loan, a 10-year NdPr price floor at $110/kg, and agreed to purchase 100% of the output from the 10X Facility for 10 years directly or through syndicated commercial buyers like GM or Apple.

The government is the largest shareholder. It has guaranteed the price of the raw material. It has agreed to buy everything the factory produces. The only variable left is execution.

The model has been applied to 8 more companies:

• USA Rare Earth USAR 0.00%↑ financing-for-equity, 8–16% stake including warrants, January 2026.

• Lithium Americas LAC 0.00%↑ , 5% stake plus 5% of Thacker Pass JV, tied to a $2.23B DoE loan restructuring.

• Trilogy Metals $TMQ , 10% for $35.6M plus a warrant for 3.75% at $0.01/share.

• Korea Zinc, ReElement Technologies, Vulcan Elements and others, warrants confirmed, some terms undisclosed.

Full disclosure I already have positions in MP, USAR & LAC.

The Intel INTC 0.00%↑ stake is the program’s most visible investment. $8.9 billion for a 9.9% equity stake, the effective conversion of CHIPS Act grants into direct ownership, with warrants for approximately 240.5 million additional shares. This is also betting on the company’s ability to validate it’s 18A manufacturing model through scaled production, on-time shipping, competitive performance and significant yield improvement turning the hyper-scaler announced initial talks and preliminary deals into reality. (I am personally believe in the comeback story myself, next earnings call will be a critical milestone capturing Panther Lake reviews and Yield commentary which are the data points that matter)

The less-discussed semiconductor bet is more audacious. In December 2025, the Commerce Department took an equity stake in xLight, a startup developing free-electron lasers to challenge ASML’s EUV monopoly. Up to $150 million in CHIPS Act equity. Executive Chairman: Pat Gelsinger, the former Intel CEO is now leading the bet on breaking America’s dependence on Dutch lithography.

The 2028 milestone: first silicon wafers produced. Note: this is a letter of intent, not a finalized deal yet. (Source: Commerce/NIST press release, December 2, 2025)

Full disclosure I hold position in INTC.

We flagged munitions as “next wave” in this article’s pipeline section. The CFR tracker’s update proves a deal has already been done.

In December 2025, the Pentagon committed $1 billion to L3Harris Technologies’ rocket motor division LHX 0.00%↑ , the business that manufactures motors used in US missile systems. The structure is a new variant not seen in other deals: the $1 billion converts to common equity when L3Harris spins off and IPOs the division, targeted for the second half of 2026. (Source: CNBC, February 7, 2026)

L3Harris is a $65 billion publicly traded defense company. This makes it the first government equity deal in a publicly traded company’s subsidiary which is a structural innovation that opens the door to similar deals across defense primes with separable divisions. I forecast more similar deals to start landing with likes of LMT 0.00%↑ , NOC 0.00%↑ , Or RTX 0.00%↑ in the near future.

On May 21, 2026, Commerce signed letters of intent with nine quantum companies, committing $2.013 billion in CHIPS Act incentives and taking a minority equity stake in every one. (Source: NIST official press release, May 21, 2026)

• IBM 0.00%↑ , receives ~$1 billion to establish Anderon America’s first pure-play quantum chip foundry based in Albany, New York.

• GlobalFoundries GFS 0.00%↑ , receives $375 million.

The remaining seven — D-Wave QBTS 0.00%↑ , Rigetti RGTI 0.00%↑, Infleqtion INFQ 0.00%↑ , Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum, and Diraq will receive approximately $100 million each.

D-Wave closed up +33% and Rigetti rose +30% on the news of the deals.

The government is not betting on one quantum architecture winning. It is buying equity in trapped-ion, superconducting, neutral-atom, and photonic approaches simultaneously.

In October 2025, the government signed an approximately $80 billion partnership with Westinghouse, Brookfield, and Cameco CCJ 0.00%↑. The government receives a participation interest entitling it to 20% of cash distributions above $17.5 billion, an option to force an IPO if Westinghouse is valued above $30 billion, and an option on 20% of the firm at the $17.5 billion discount. (Source: CSIS, May 2026; K&L Gates)

The U.S. Steel NYSE: X / Nippon Steel deal (June 2025) introduced the golden share which is veto power over major business decisions with no cash-for-equity and no financial return. Control, not economics.

A correction to the pipeline: We originally listed munitions as a next-wave sector with no deal yet. The CFR tracker update confirms the L3Harris deal was already complete meaning munitions has already moved from pipeline to portfolio, we forecast more deals in this space to come.

The remaining next-wave sectors are:

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is meeting directly with robotics CEOs. The CFR tracker explicitly confirms the Department of Commerce is “exploring ways to support the robotics, automation, and advanced manufacturing sectors.” A standalone executive order is expected in 2026. (Source: CFR, May 2026; Politico, March 2026)

PUBLIC-MARKET PROXIES TO WATCH

FY27 budget: $70B+ for military drones. DAWG request: $54.6 billion, up from $225.9 million the prior year. The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital is in active equity/debt negotiations with Performance Drone Works, Unusual Machines UMAC 0.00%↑, and Neros Technologies, targeting ~$5,000 per attack drone. (Source: DefenseScoop)

PUBLIC-MARKET PROXIES TO WATCH

These sector has already soared on the news of the talks and a number of these stocks has already seen rallies of above +50% on the day the news broke, meaning upside on the news might already be partially priced-in.

Moe_On_Margin Called out RCAT 0.00%↑ & UMAC 0.00%↑ as part of my Russell reconstitution additions article on May 23rd highlighted as 2/10 scalers named and I entered into positions on both stocks that same week prior to news coming out.

Maritime Action Plan (Feb 2026): Maritime Security Trust Fund with mandatory funding stream. SHIPS Act is the legislative vehicle. FY27: $65.8 billion for Navy shipbuilding. EO 14372 directs prime contractors to reinvest cash rather than pay dividends. (Source: Center for Maritime Strategy; Holland & Knight)

PUBLIC-MARKET PROXIES TO WATCH

• HII 0.00%↑ Huntington Ingalls

• $GD General Dynamics (Electric Boat)

9 of 17 pre-quantum deals already critical minerals. More confirmed coming: Project Vault stockpile, allied minerals trading bloc, copper and metallurgical coal added to the list, sovereign risk-insurance fund under development. Foreign partners including ADQ now participating. (Source: CFR, May 2026)

PUBLIC-MARKET PROXIES TO WATCH

• MP 0.00%↑ MP Materials

• $FCX Freeport-McMoRan

• $CLF Cleveland-Cliffs $AA Alcoa

• $CRML Critical Metals Corp

Full disclosure I hold positions in MP 0.00%↑ and CRML 0.00%↑

1. Washington is now a shareholder in 26 companies with $181 billion left to deploy. J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund are co-investing alongside. This is a coalition of capital, not a solo government bet.

2. Munitions has already moved from pipeline to portfolio. The L3Harris deal a $1 billion into a missile motor division, converting to equity at IPO, proves the government didn’t wait for the next wave. It’s a new structural variant that opens the door to similar deals across major defence primes.

3. The three-tool structure is what makes this different. Equity + grants + offtake/price floors makes Washington an active guarantor of commercial success. The MP Materials deal is the template and we will watch for it applied to drones and robotics next.

4. Robotics is still the sector to front-run. Munitions moved faster than we expected. Robotics is next on the same trajectory with CEO meetings, pending executive order, CFR confirmation. No deal yet, so the window is still open.

5. Watch the 2028 milestones. USA Rare Earth heavy RE production, MP Materials mine-to-magnet scale-up, Intel’s 18A model validation and xLight first silicon wafers. These are all proof points the entire program’s credibility rests on.

America’s industrial policy has gone from subsidies to ownership. The sovereign wealth fund announcement just has not happened yet. But the transactions have.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. I may hold positions in some of the companies mentioned in this article and readers should factor this in and always conduct their own independent research before making any investment decisions.

While all data and figures have been sourced from publicly available primary sources, government programs, deal terms, and policy and efforts have been made to validate accuracy, the details can still vary & change without notice and I cannot guarantee the ongoing accuracy of information presented.

Any companies identified as potential next targets for government investment represent my own personal interpretation of publicly available signals and they are not yet fully confirmed, endorsed, or implied by any government body or official source.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Article research and generated imagery enabled by AI tools including Claude by Anthropic.