求职者选择放弃:劳动力参与率降至 50 年来最低水平
Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation falls to lowest in 50 years

原始链接: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/job-seekers-giving-up-labor-force-participation-rate-falls-to-lowest-in-50-years-outside-of-covid-era.html

6月份的就业报告呈现了一幅具有误导性的美国劳动力市场图景。虽然失业率降至4.2%(为一年来的最低水平),但这种下降并非源于经济实力的增强,而是源于令人担忧的“大规模劳动力流失”。 劳动力参与率降至61.5%,创下2021年以来的最低水平,仅在一个月内就有72万人停止寻找工作。与以往通常归因于退休的趋势不同,最显著的下降发生在“黄金年龄”(25-54岁)的劳动者群体中,其参与率降至83.3%。此外,尽管机构调查显示就业人数有小幅增长,但实际就业人数却大幅下降。 经济学家担心,这些数据预示着劳动力市场正在收缩,许多失业者已放弃寻找工作。虽然一些专家认为数据可能存在波动,但这一趋势表明就业机会正日益减少,这使得人们对尽管失业率表面上很低、但实际上劳动力市场是否健康的状况产生了怀疑。

这场 Hacker News 的讨论围绕 CNBC 的一篇报道展开,该报道指出劳动力参与率已降至 50 年来的最低点(不包括新冠疫情期间)。讨论串展现了人们对当前经济状况的分歧: * **数据解读各异:** 一些用户认为黄金年龄段的劳动力参与率依然强劲,并将整体下降归因于富裕群体的提前退休。另一些人则指出,这对大学毕业生而言是一个令人担忧的“警示信号”,并以近期黄金年龄段参与率的下降作为劳动力市场陷入困境的证据。 * **经济幻想破灭:** 一种普遍的情绪是对疫情后的财政政策感到沮丧。批评者认为,大规模的印钞行为让精英阶层更加富有,同时推高了通货膨胀,实际上是“拆掉了”中产阶级的上升阶梯。 * **“退出”趋势:** 几位参与者分享了他们脱离传统职场的个人决定,选择变卖资产转而务农或独立生活,这标志着人们越来越渴望与一个他们认为受到操纵或充满敌意的体系脱钩。 归根结底,这场讨论反映了社会对经济不平等、政府干预被认为失败的深层焦虑,以及对当前劳动力市场产生的疏离感。
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原文

A now hiring sign is posted in the window of a Chipotle restaurant on June 5, 2026 in Los Angeles, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

On the surface, a June drop in the unemployment rate helped provide some upside to what was an otherwise downbeat jobs report — but it was for all the wrong reasons.

That's because the decline in the jobless level to 4.2%, the lowest in a year, came largely from an exodus of workers from the labor force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data Thursday.

In fact, the measure of the working-age population either employed or looking for a job slid to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. Excluding the Covid-era jobs market, it was the lowest labor force participation rate in exactly 50 years.

The decline in the labor force marks a "massive exodus" driven by multiple factors, said Mike Reid, head of U.S. economics at RBC.

"The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as both the number of unemployed workers and the size of the labor force pulled back," Reid wrote in a post-report commentary. "This may well be a story of retirements but could also be a story of prior job seekers dropping out of the labor force."

Quitting the search

Within the bureau's household survey, where the participation numbers are drawn, is a story of a consistently contracting labor force potentially driven by unemployed workers simply giving up.

In June alone, the labor force, a measure of those either employed or not employed and looking for work, plummeted by 720,000. Similarly, the rolls of those counted as not in the labor force, a group that includes the unemployed and those not looking for work, jumped by 832,000.

And while the establishment survey, which counts jobs filled, showed growth for the month of 57,000, the survey of households, which counts the actual level of those working, tumbled by 507,000.

On a year-over-year basis, the labor force is down by just over 1 million, while the level of the employed also has fallen by 1.06 million and the ranks of the unemployed have risen by 40,000. The employment-to-population ratio slipped to 59% in June, the lowest since October 2021. All that has happened while the unemployment rate has risen by just one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.2%.

"What really affects me is not so much the unemployment rate," said Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz. "What's an important development is the participation rate, and this is a big leg down in one month, and over the past year it's a pretty big leg down. I think this is a more important number."

Not just retirees

The drop in participation is sometimes attributed to a shrinking immigrant population and retiring baby boomers and Gen Xers.

However, in June the biggest plunge came from what is defined as "prime age" workers, or those between the ages of 25 and 54. That rate fell 0.6 percentage point to 83.3%, its lowest since December 2023.

"Looking at the statistics now, that argument doesn't hold up so well," North said of the retirement and immigration rationale. "I hate to use the word 'alarming,'" he added, but said the numbers are cause for concern.

To be sure, some economists said the June numbers seem out of sort. Specifically, they cited the large decline in leisure and hospitality workers as a sign that the data could be noisy.

But the participation numbers are part of a continuing trend.

"It was shocking to see 720,000 people stop looking for work entirely and the hospitality sector shed jobs," wrote Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "It's a better job market than a year ago, but opportunities are limited."

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