Oil prices spiked overnight to three-week-highs after President Trump said that he thought the Iran cease-fire was “over” amid a volatile 24 hours in the Persian Gulf region.
The Trump admin launched a series of strikes on Iran and revoked a waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil in retaliation for attacks on tankers this week in the Strait of Hormuz.
Daniela Hathorn, an analyst at Capital.com, a broker, said that investors had viewed the cease-fire as “fragile but ultimately durable,” until Mr. Trump’s comments called that into question.
“Any suggestion that negotiations have collapsed raises the risk of renewed supply interruptions or tighter sanctions,” Ms. Hathorn said in a statement.
Overnight saw across the board inventory draws reported by API (but admittedly the draws were on the smaller side).
API
Crude -399k
Cushing -100k
Gasoline -2.92mm
Distillates -1.80mm
DOE
While the decline in crude stocks was expected to slow, the 3mm barrel build is entirely unexpected. Product stocks are seeing big draws with distillates dominating the flows (amid record crack spreads)...
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks at the critical Cushing hub are stuck at 'tank bottoms'...
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to see sizable draws...
...drooping the total SPR level to fresh post-1983 lows...
US crude production pushed back up to record highs...
US crude exports, which have been running hot since April, have tumbled back to 'normal' levels...
But product exports exploded to a new record high...
WTI front-month futures were hovering around three-week highs around $74.50 ahead of the official data (back above its 50DMA), and extending gains after...
While the physical crude market remains reasonably supplied, refined products continue to tighten.
Crack spreads remain elevated (potentially providing more crude demand pull from refiners), and ongoing strikes on Russian refining infrastructure are keeping product markets tight.
And that's why pump prices are not falling in line with crude...
...as President Trump demands!!