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ZDNET's key takeaways

• Starlink's 100,000 satellites will dwarf existing constellations.
• When deployed, SpaceX promises the network will deliver gigabit speeds.
• When it comes to satellite internet, Starlink has no real competition.

Do you like Starlink internet? If so, you'll love that its parent company, SpaceX, has applied to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for permission to launch 100,000 third-generation (Gen3) Starlink satellites. The upshot for users? SpaceX promises to deliver "ultra-low-latency" multi-gigabit symmetrical broadband.

Now, I'll believe that when I see it. Today's advertised peak is "up to" around 300 to 400+ Mbps down, but typical real-world speeds are much lower. Over at ZDNET's sister publication, PCMag, reviewer Brian Westover found that even on Starlink's top home plan, the Residential Max plan, mean download speeds plateaued in the 145 megabits per second (Mbps) to 170 Mbps range, with upload speeds of just under 40 Mbps.

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That's plodding compared to my home AT&T Internet fiber, which, day in and day out, delivers 2.1 gigabits per second (Gbps) download and upload speeds. I never would have dreamed of such speeds when I was still using a 300-baud modem. But these days, almost no one uses modems, and if you're not living in a broadband-rich area, you may not have access to fiber internet. For people like Westover, who lives in rural Idaho, Starlink isn't just great; it's a necessity.

SpaceX's Gen3 filing

In its FCC application, SpaceX seeks authority to deploy a Gen3 Starlink system in very low Earth orbit (LEO). The filing positions Gen3 as a successor and expansion beyond the existing Gen1 and Gen2 constellations. Today, there are nearly 11,000 Starlink satellites in orbit. If approved, Starlink will launch and operate 100,000 satellites.

These Gen3 satellites will weigh more than 2,000 kilograms, or over two tons. That means SpaceX won't be able to launch a meaningful number of satellites at once using its workhorse Falcon 9 rockets. Instead, CEO Elon Musk has said SpaceX will need to use Starship, which still isn't ready for prime time. In the meantime, Falcon Heavy rockets would be able to launch sufficient Gen3 satellites to deliver the service.

SpaceX has told the FCC that the Gen3 network is intended to serve not only consumers and enterprises but also government customers and "billions of AI-powered devices worldwide," tying the constellation directly to projected compute and data-transport demands from large-scale AI systems. This is no AI data center in space, but it's a step in that direction.

Massive spectrum request

The application seeks access to an unusually broad span of spectrum, including Ku-, Ka-, V-, E-, W-, and D-band frequencies. Downlink bands cited in the filing include 10.7 to 13.4 GHz, 17.3 to 21.2 GHz, and 37.5 to 42.5 GHz, while uplink bands span multiple ranges up to approximately 231.5 to 275 GHz. SpaceX requests waivers of FCC rules, such as Section 2.106, to assemble larger contiguous channels for high-capacity fronthaul, backhaul, and massive uplink.

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All this means Gen3 could interfere with rival satellite internet services and other wireless services. SpaceX promises to operate on a noninterference, nonprotected basis and to engage in "good-faith coordination" with incumbents and federal users.

For you, that means you'll need to upgrade your existing Starlink user terminals and antennas to make the most of the new satellite constellation's gigabit speeds. This upgraded end-user hardware is expected to be available shortly.

According to the filing, SpaceX claims the hardware and spectrum plan can deliver on the order of a 100-fold increase in total Starlink bandwidth. Starlink's current real-world latency is roughly 30 to 50 ms for most users. Gen3, SpaceX promises, will drop that to below 20 ms.

Starlink rivals

Starlink's highest residential rate is now $130 a month. While SpaceX hasn't announced rates for its new Gen3 service, I expect it to be at least $200 a month, and I won't be surprised if it ends up being $300 a month.

Also: How I turned my Starlink Mini into the ultimate off-grid internet device

Starlink's main satellite broadband rivals are Amazon Leo, Eutelsat-OneWeb, and forthcoming systems such as Telesat Lightspeed and Blue Origin's TeraWave. Moreover, legacy geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) players Hughesnet and Viasat are still in business.

However, when I say rivals, I'm being kind. Amazon Leo is only now getting ready to deliver the internet to customers, while Eutelsat-OneWeb is really a business-first network and not for Joe User. Meanwhile, GEO players are starting to go out of business. They simply can't deliver the speed today's demanding customers need. Nothing spells that out more than Hughesnet's recent deal with SpaceX to refer its customers to Starlink.

Next steps at the FCC

The application will move through the FCC's Space Bureau process, including a public notice and comment period during which rivals and interest groups can file petitions to deny, seek conditions, or propose modifications to SpaceX's plans. Approval is not guaranteed, and any eventual grant could include strict conditions around debris mitigation, spectrum coordination, and interference protections, especially given the nonconforming high-frequency bands SpaceX wants to use for Gen3.

Additionally, astromers are strenuously objecting to Starlink's plans. A recent European Southern Observatory study argues that large constellations, specifically Starlink, would have "devastating effects on astronomy."

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Still, if the FCC signs off on even a substantial fraction of the 100,000-satellite request, Gen3 Starlink would redefine the scale of satellite broadband. It would also certainly ensure that, going forward, Starlink will be almost everyone's first choice for satellite internet.