SK海力士的美国首秀是人工智能泡沫的顶点吗？法国巴黎银行认为现在仍处于1998年。

SK海力士的美国首秀是人工智能泡沫的顶点吗？法国巴黎银行认为现在仍处于1998年。
Was SK Hynix's US Debut The AI Bubble Top? BNP Says It's Still 1998

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/was-sk-hynixs-us-debut-ai-bubble-top-bnp-says-its-still-1998

SK海力士在美国存托凭证（ADR）的首秀表现成功，反映出投资者对高带宽内存的强劲需求，尽管更广泛的内存芯片行业已显现降温迹象。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）已进入熊市，而瑞银市场脆弱性指数（UBS Market Fragility Index）等内部风险指标显示，市场对于剧烈逆转的脆弱性有所提高。然而，市场情绪依然存在分歧。虽然一些分析师担心人工智能基础设施泡沫即将破裂，但法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）认为当前环境与20世纪90年代末的情况相似。策略师若昂·托雷斯（João Torres）表示，尽管人工智能建设与过去的工业泡沫具有某些共同特征，但尚未达到极端水平。法国巴黎银行的“泡沫指标”目前处于第84百分位；虽然从历史经验来看，这预示着未来6至12个月的表现可能走软，但也意味着这一繁荣期在达到顶峰前可能仍有增长空间。归根结底，这场辩论的关键在于，人工智能的涨势是触及了绝对上限，还是仅仅遵循了历史轨迹，朝着进一步扩张的方向发展。

原文

With SK Hynix's American depositary receipts now trading under the temporary ticker SKHYV as of late Friday morning, the seven-times-oversubscribed offering highlights Wall Street's rush for more direct exposure to high-bandwidth memory amid the AI infrastructure boom.

Against the backdrop of mounting concerns about an AI infrastructure bubble, Roth Capital Partners' sales trading team asked clients earlier Friday: "How will investors, looking back two years from now, view the timing and significance of SK Hynix's US offering?"

Taking a look at the GS TMT Memory Exposed Index (GSTMTMEM Index), Goldman Sachs' thematic basket tracking companies with high exposure to the memory chip cycle, the trade appears to have peaked in mid-June.

Zooming in on the recent price action in the GSTMTMEM Index:

That rollover has since spread into the broader South Korean market, with the Kospi entering a bear market this week as the memory stock euphoria begins to fade.

Adding to the AI bubble doomerism camp is UBS' proprietary Market Fragility Index, an internal risk gauge measuring how vulnerable markets are to a sharp reversal or volatility shock, which currently prints at an eye-popping high.

But not everyone on Wall Street is pessimistic, and analysts at BNP Paribas say the AI boom increasingly resembles the late 1990s.

João Torres, a European credit strategist at BNP Paribas based at the bank's Portugal branch, penned a note on Friday with a title that suggests the AI bubble has more room to inflate: "The Bubble Playbook: It's still 1998."

"Technological progress can create industrial bubbles. Chart 2: Equity IPOs following late 90s path, led by Tech We analysed the extent to which the AI buildout is evolving in line with previous industrial bubbles. The late 1990s provide a fitting playbook. In our view, AI has similarities of an industrial bubble but is not yet extreme," Torres wrote in the note.

The BNPP Bubble Indicator currently stands around the 84th percentile, driven by elevated animal spirits, valuations and earnings expectations. At that level, near-term stock returns could be positive, but historical patterns suggest softer performance over six to 12 months if the indicator moves to the 85th percentile level.

Torres put together a compelling chartpack that suggests today's environment is more like the late 1990s:

Chart 1: Technological breakthroughs can lead to industrial bubbles