Oil prices are marginally higher overnight after President Trump reinstated the blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and shipping slowed to a crawl amid the renewed warfare in the critical waterway.
US Central Command said it completed a morning round of strikes on Iran that further degraded its ability to attack commercial shipping in Hormuz.
It comes a day after attacks on ships that had been participating in so-called shuttle runs that have helped get oil from inside the Persian Gulf through the strait.
Visible transit through the waterway has fallen sharply in recent days, but there remains a high level of uncertainty about what’s actually crossing because many ships have been doing so dark - without broadcasting their location.
“While crude has started to find some balance after rallying from around $70, it still takes a brave shipowner to transit the Strait of Hormuz with the threat of attacks from forces aligned with Tehran remaining very real,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd.
“The broader geopolitical backdrop continues to deteriorate, providing ongoing support for crude prices and keeping buyers prepared to step back in should prices push toward the $90 area.”
Overnight saw mixed data from API on crude/product supply, all eyes now on the official data.
API
Crude -564k
Cushing +200k
Gasoline -1.664mm
Distillates +2.3mm
DOE
After a build the prior week, crude stocks resumed their series of drawdowns last week (11 of last 12 weeks) and gasoline stocks also saw another draw while distillate stocks soared (amid record 3-2-1 crack spreads)...
Crack spreads remain at record highs...
The SPR saw yet another drawdown... but the smallest since the war-driven releases began (-2.985mm)...
Cushing stocks barely moved off 'tank bottoms'...
US crude production pushed back up to record highs as the rig count trends higher...
Interestingly, after reaching record highs in the prior week, US crude product exports plunged to pre-war norms last week (but bear in mind this data series is a week lagged)...
The rebound in crude... and more notably products... has started to drag pump prices higher in the US...
Not what President trump wants to see.
But oil prices are dipping after the report...
Finally, as The FT reports, oil traders are warning that the latest flare-up of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz marks a risky new phase for the market, which is facing fresh disruption without the stockpiles that helped avert a wider economic crisis earlier in the US-Iran war.
“We’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” said one trader.
“All of that’s now gone,” he said.
Western powers released record volumes of strategic oil reserves, China cut its oil imports in half and made its state-backed companies pull fuel from inventories, while the White House even let it be known the US could, in theory at least, intervene in futures markets if prices got out of hand.
The result was that Brent crude peaked at $126 a barrel in April, well below its all-time high, despite the IEA warning that the world was experiencing the worst supply disruption in history.
But traders said that if the renewed closure of the strait lasts for months, with some suspecting Iran wants to keep the pressure on US President Donald Trump ahead of the November midterm elections, it is not clear this time where the oil to make up the shortfall would come from.