人工智能狂热:从郁金香到代币
AI Mania: From Tulips to Tokens

原始链接: https://seanhelvey.com/tools-and-their-tools/

本篇文章借鉴迈克尔·波伦(Michael Pollan)的协同进化视角,探讨了人类与人工智能之间共生——甚至可能是寄生——的关系。正如人类曾被郁金香、玉米和苹果的“欲望”所诱惑,我们如今也被人工智能所驱使,不禁质疑究竟是我们掌握了这项技术,还是正被其操纵。 作者认为,尽管人工智能很有用,但它目前笼罩在“分形不透明度”(fractal opacity)之中,在能源消耗、环境影响和真正的智能方面缺乏透明度。当前的行业“狂热”将快速扩张置于可持续性之上,这与历史上过度炒作和资源掠夺的模式如出一辙。 归根结底,本文拒绝了人工智能是必然奇点的观念,转而支持“数据主权”的愿景。通过将计算视为一种公共设施并将其与本地资源整合(类似于农光互补),我们可以从掠夺性模式转向服务社区的模式。正如森林在火灾后会恢复生机,作者预见当前的AI泡沫终将“消解”,并留下开放权重和本地控制等可持续的惯例。核心挑战依然在于:确保技术服务于人类和地球的需求,而不是将我们变成自身造物的工具。

一场关于《AI 狂热:从郁金香到代币》这篇文章的 Hacker News 讨论显示出截然不同的评价。一些评论者批评该文结构松散、故作高深,且过于依赖将人工智能与 NFT 和元宇宙等过往市场泡沫进行夸张的类比;而另一些人则认为其由人类撰写的、直率的视角令人耳目一新。 这场辩论凸显了一个核心矛盾:当前的 AI 热潮究竟是空洞的投机泡沫,还是类似于铁路发展那样的产业变革?怀疑论者指出了大型数据中心带来的环境代价,以及在能源和水资源消耗方面缺乏透明度的问题。相反,支持者则认为 AI 提供了切实且日常的效用,这使其区别于此前周期中那些毫无功能的收藏品。归根结底,社区对此仍存在分歧,难以调和 AI 快速且不透明的发展进程,与其在资源占用及对人类劳动影响方面缺乏问责机制之间的矛盾。
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原文

Michael Pollan has written about everything from mushrooms to apples and corn, but his coevolutionary story of how tulips and humans shaped each other may have been the most prescient given recent market parallels. GPU compute powering crypto for the last decade has spilled over into a bigger boom in language models. From bulbs, to coins, and now tokens. With animal spirits driving markets higher and CEOs blaming artificial intelligence for layoffs, who is using whom? AI, like the apple and corn plants, is gleefully spreading its seed while we prompt for another sweet hit of dopamine.

“Things are in the saddle and ride mankind.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

The reductionist worldview that species are simply carriers of DNA hardly explains the complex relationship between humans and plants, let alone our situation with AI. The term itself has become a meme in the original Dawkins sense and started replicating on its own. We know this self-reinforcing system of models and data is powerful, yet can’t even agree on whether agents are truly intelligent or perhaps conscious.

I haven’t had the pleasure of reading Pollan’s latest book on the topic of consciousness. My unpopular opinion is that AI has not solved “the hard problem” despite its obvious usefulness and the hype. I think Yann LeCun has it right in claiming that animals exhibit learning abilities far beyond machines. Donald Hoffman goes further and puts math behind a worldview where conscious agents are the base layer rather than something matter works its way up to. Sam Altman says we’ve reached the singularity, and while investors raise capital and profit, the rest of us are in amygdala hijack, worried about the next paycheck. If the labs truly believe these systems are waking up, then owning them and renting them out by the token is a question none of them seem eager to face.

Full self driving, according to Elon Musk

  • 2014: in less than a year you will go from highway on ramp to highway exit without touching any controls
  • 2016: we are less than two years away from complete autonomy
  • 2019: feature complete this year, and a million robotaxis on the road the next
  • 2026: a quarter to half of the United States by year end

A Turing Award and Nobel prize winner predicted in the 1960s that the programming occupation would become extinct, because computers would program themselves. Sixty years on we are still here, though it hasn’t felt that way on the roller coaster of hiring and firing. Grace Hopper was told that machines could only do arithmetic when she proposed writing programs in English, and the chips in every data center now carry her name. Coding was never the bottleneck anyway; relationships and understanding drive value. Tools amplify expertise and we are accountable for impact.

One thing that becomes obvious when attempting to analyze this ecosystem is the lack of transparency. Anyone who has worked on neural networks knows how difficult attribution can be, but it turns out the industry is currently exhibiting an almost fractal opacity. We created the content their systems are built on, yet they won’t even share how much energy each query uses, how much water goes to cooling, or who ends up holding the land and the aquifer when a site goes quiet.

“All these plants, which I’d always regarded as the objects of my desire, were also, I realized, subjects, acting on me, getting me to do things for them they couldn’t do for themselves.” – Michael Pollan

Anecdotally I see agents searching the web not once but 5-10 times because the model is stale, and all that traffic contradicts the SaaSpocalypse hypothesis. Managing them exhausts not only my attention but our limited natural resources. New transmission takes four to eight years and transformers are back ordered, so demand shows up on everyone’s monthly bill and as a hum the neighbors can’t sleep through. Erin Brockovich is mapping the proposed sites and the towns fighting them. Fear of losing to China ends every local objection, which is how the military industrial complex has always worked. While we can do more faster, the quality is debatable, and the externalities aren’t accounted for at any level.

Lyla June said at a recent food forests course that humans have the potential to be a keystone and serve the planet rather than dominate it. At PNW Climate Week I went on an agrivoltaics tour called Sun, Soil & Sovereignty, where the same acre grows food and generates solar electricity. Data sovereignty could look like that, with compute sited where the panels and the crops are, and the people who live there holding a stake in the land, the water, and the machines. It is becoming a public utility and should be owned like one. That reframes the race with China too, since they most likely made the panels in that field, and a shared atmosphere has no them in it. That would be technology serving a place instead of extracting from it.

Closer to home, I asked Claude Code while writing this whether it would be possible to have a post subtitle with my current website configuration. I wanted to add something punny to avoid sounding pretentious, knowing folks on Reddit and Hacker News would pick this apart. Instead of answering, it ran off, wrote some code, and did the thing. My blog post has a subtitle now! So much for the human in the loop.

Frontier labs are an important first flush from this cycle, but they won’t always be around. The shift from AI mania to panic may be sparked organically through market forces, a severe security breach, or an act of legislation. Grasses and fireweed hold the ground after a burn, alder feeds the soil, oak and madrone sprout back into the light. The fiber laid during the dot com boom sat dark for years. Conventions born in the euphoria will survive this great unwind: open weights, models running on your own machine, plain language as an interface, and towns that know they can say no.

“Men have become the tools of their tools.” – Henry David Thoreau

Pollan used the Thoreau quote above in The Omnivore’s Dilemma, where a farmer named Billy had taken on hauling work to keep the farm afloat after buying a new tractor. He raised the question of who Billy was really working for now. The bank? John Deere? Monsanto? And then there is the corn itself, he adds, which would marvel at the absurdity of it all.

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