美国在对伊朗战争中“几乎耗尽”了其远程精确制导导弹。
U.S. used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war

原始链接: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/us-has-used-virtually-all-of-its-long-range-precision-missiles-report.html

在与伊朗的冲突持续五个月后,美国陆军正面临远程导弹库存告急的严峻局面,特别是陆军战术导弹系统(ATACMS)和精确打击导弹(PrSM)。报告显示,美军已几乎耗尽了所有陆基远程弹药,这引发了官员们对美军是否有能力威慑中国或俄罗斯等对手的担忧。 除进攻性导弹外,爱国者拦截弹和萨德(THAAD)系统等防御性库存也出现了大幅缩减,据估计降幅在30%至65%之间。尽管特朗普总统坚称美国拥有卓越的军事能力和创纪录的产量,但内部辩论强调了依赖这些弹药进行长期作战的风险。分析人士警告称,这些武器对于从安全距离打击重兵防守的目标至关重要,目前的消耗率可能会限制未来的战术灵活性。虽然五角大楼坚称其保持着“深厚的武库”储备,但据报道,由于供应限制,军方已缩减了某些进攻行动,这引发了关于对伊军事行动可持续性的广泛讨论。

近期的一场 Hacker News 讨论引发了人们对一份报告的担忧:该报告称,美国在与伊朗的持续冲突中,已耗尽了“几乎所有”远程精确导弹(特别是 ATACMS 和 PrSM)的库存。 参与者就这种耗竭的战略影响进行了辩论: * **制造与产能:** 批评者认为,过度依赖昂贵且难以制造的导弹是军事学说的失败。许多人指出,美国缺乏像中国那样强大的应急生产能力,这在长期冲突中可能是灾难性的。 * **地缘政治风险:** 用户担心这种脆弱性可能会助长对手的气焰,尤其是在中国对台问题上,因为美国在多战区进行威慑的能力似乎有所减弱。 * **质疑:** 一些评论者对“耗尽”这一说法的准确性表示怀疑,将其与早期关于俄罗斯在乌克兰耗尽导弹的报道进行对比。另一些人则指出,该报告很可能仅指美国陆军的地面发射库存,而空军和海军的库存是分开的。 总体而言,这场讨论反映了人们对美国工业准备状态、不对称战争的高昂成本以及当前军事战略可持续性的深切焦虑。
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原文

The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar ⁠with the data, raising concerns about the military's readiness for future conflicts.

The missiles are principally the Army's surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used "virtually all" of these weapons, according to two of the sources.

The degree to which the ​military is running out of ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles has not ​been previously reported. The long-range munitions are an important part ​the military's arsenal, allowing accurate strikes from a safe distance. U.S.-supplied ATACMS have played a key role in the war in Ukraine, allowing Ukrainian forces to attack targets inside Russia. The PrSM is a newer, more advanced generation that will replace the ATACMS, which have a shorter range.

Analysts say such weapons – which cost over $1 million each – would also be important in any conflict with China.

The sources declined to say how many of each munition the U.S. had left.

President Donald Trump launched the ⁠Iran war ‌jointly with Israel in February, predicting that the conflict would last a short time.

But as the war drags on, the ⁠three people familiar with the matter expressed worry that the falling missile supplies could limit the U.S. ability to deter adversaries, including Russia and China.

A fourth person familiar with the matter said that while Central Command — which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East — has nearly used up the land-based missiles it had before the war began, it has been able to reload from U.S. military supplies elsewhere in the world.

The sources interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Asked for comment on the stockpile data, the White House issued a statement ‌from Trump, saying the U.S. had "far more munitions than anyone in the world" and "far more than we need."

"Our defense companies are, at this moment, making more munitions than they have ever made before, in addition to expanding their plants and equipment at record levels," Trump said.

Analysts agree that certain munitions, including artillery shells and several types of missiles, are being produced at record levels but caution that ​supplies might far short of what is needed for a prolonged war.

Lockheed Martin, which makes the ATACMs and PrSMs, along with the anti-ballistic missile THAAD system, did not immediately respond to questions about Trump's statements or about supply levels. Raytheon, which makes Tomahawk missiles and Patriot interceptors, two important U.S. weapons, also did not immediately respond.

Responding to a request for comment, chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said: "America's military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing. We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a ⁠deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests."

The supply figures have circulated inside the federal government over the last week during tense conversations inside the Trump administration about how much longer the U.S. can continue striking Iran without drawing down the ‌stockpile to levels that would limit the military's ability to respond to crises elsewhere.

Warnings over weapons supplies

One of the sources said the drawdown of the ‌ATACMS and PrSM stockpiles reflected a decision by the Trump administration to avoid riskier ways of attacking Iranian targets, such as by using piloted aircraft to drop bombs.

Because these weapons allow the military to attack targets from a distance, analysts say they would be valuable in a war against an adversary with strong air defenses, such as China. They have been used to strike targets inside Iran, according to a March report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

According to the report, PrSM stockpiles were low to start with, since ⁠it is a relatively new munition, but the U.S. military has ordered a large number of them for 2027. The Army has said that ATACMS are being phased out and that production ⁠is shifting to the newer PrSM missiles.

Military leaders have for weeks warned the president that stockpiles of defensive weapons — including Patriot interceptors, which are effective against ballistic missiles — were dwindling, said two of ⁠the sources. Last week, several media outlets reported Trump had decided not to launch another massive offensive inside Iran in part because his military advisers had warned about the U.S. stockpile.

A U.S. official disputed those accounts, saying Trump chose not to move forward with another attack because of pressure from Gulf states.

The Middle East conflict has sparked intense debate about Trump's ​authority to prosecute hostilities against Iran without congressional authorization. No request for a declaration of war or an authorization to ‌use military force has been submitted to Congress.

Defensive weapon stocks are also diminished

Last week, CSIS published a report estimating that between February and July about 65% of Patriot interceptors had been expended and that the number of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors in U.S. stockpiles was at least 38% lower than at the start of the war. Patriots and THAADs are systems that detect and destroy incoming missiles and are among the most effective in the country's arsenal.

While Reuters has not seen the supply figures, those numbers match internal U.S. data, two of the sources said.

The U.S. also burned through a little less than half of its global supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are generally launched from ships, since the start of the war, one of the sources said.

Reuters could not ​independently verify that number.

The Tomahawk is a Navy weapon, launched from destroyers, cruisers and ‌submarines, and has long served as the sea service's principal means of striking heavily defended targets without risking pilots.

Raytheon, a unit of RTX, has reached a tentative multi-year agreement with the Pentagon aimed at boosting Tomahawk production, alongside increases in other munitions, as Washington races to rebuild stockpiles.

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