美联储卡什卡利表示,“现在是开始缓慢加息的时候了”。
Fed's Kashkari says 'now is the time to start slowly moving' rates up

原始链接: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/feds-kashkari-says-now-is-the-time-to-start-slowly-moving-rates-up.html

明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利(Neel Kashkari)主张逐步提高利率以抑制通胀,并警告称,采取主动、渐进的措施优于日后激进的加息。 在最近的一次采访中,卡什卡利认为,尽管劳动力市场强劲且企业盈利稳健,但目前的货币政策似乎不够紧缩。他是最近一次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上三位持异议的成员之一,尽管委员会决定维持利率不变,但他主张加息25个基点。 卡什卡利强调,他并非呼吁采取激进措施,而是主张采取谨慎的方法来应对持续的通胀压力。虽然他不确定委员会在9月会议上的下一步行动,但他坚持认为美联储仍有工作要做。他的立场与费城联储主席安娜·保尔森(Anna Paulson)形成对比,后者认为目前的利率已经“适度紧缩”,并支持维持现状。卡什卡利指出,他并未受到领导层要求其投票立场一致的压力,并表示他被鼓励采取符合经济最大利益的行动。

这篇 Hacker News 讨论帖探讨了美联储官员尼尔·卡什卡利(Neel Kashkari)最近提出的应开始逐步加息的建议。 社区的反应主要是怀疑和批评。许多用户对相互矛盾的经济信号表示困惑,质疑加息是否真正惠及普通民众,还是说美联储仅服务于富人和企业实体的利益。评论者强调了企业创纪录的利润与普通消费者困境之间的脱节,多位用户指出,经济稳定最终取决于消费者的支出。 除了社会影响外,讨论还涉及更广泛的市场焦虑,包括高抵押贷款利率的影响以及日元套利交易平仓的潜在连锁反应。一些用户推测,无论美联储的政策走向如何,全球金融的不稳定性(如日本的通胀或潜在的 AI 泡沫)都可能引发进一步的市场波动。总体而言,这种情绪反映了对当前经济管理深层次的不信任,以及对美国经济未来的不确定性。
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原文

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that he thinks higher interest rates are needed now to bring down inflation and avoid more drastic increases later.

In a CNBC interview, the central bank official called for a gradual approach that could start in September, though he did not commit to a timetable.

Kashkari was one of three dissenters at last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting who wanted a quarter percentage point rate hike. However, the other nine voters disagreed, voting to hold the benchmark funds rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.

"Corporate earnings are through the roof. They're doing great. The consumer is hanging in there. The labor market is hanging in there. I look at this constellation and I say, what evidence do I have that monetary policy is particularly restrictive right now?" he told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin in a live "Squawk Box" interview from the Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado.

"So, I argued now is the time to start slowly moving up as we get more data in," he said.

The FOMC has been on hold all year as officials deliberate over the proper approach to policy with the labor market stabilizing but inflation holding well above the Fed's 2% target.

Inflation data in June showed some improvement as tensions temporarily eased in the Middle East and oil prices pulled back.

However, Kashkari said he remains uneasy about the situation and thinks the Fed needs to address what he called a series of supply shocks pressuring consumers. He added that he's not sure what the committee will do at its Sept. 15-16 meeting and said coming data points will be key. Markets pricing is titled slightly toward a rate hike next month, with a better chance coming in October.

"I'm not calling for a dramatic increase in interest rates," he said. "I'm simply saying I don't see evidence of monetary policy [being] marginally restrictive right now, and I think we have more work to do to get inflation back down. And I would rather get going now in small steps than wait till later, then we have a really entrenched inflation problem and have to raise rates aggressively."

The remarks come a day after Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who like Kashkari gets a vote this year on the FOMC, offered a differing view.

Paulson told CNBC that she thinks there is evidence that the current interest rate level is "mildly restrictive" on economic conditions and favors holding steady as officials continue to evaluate the data. In addition, Paulson said voting to hold was "not a close call" for her at the meeting.

The three "no" votes were the first during Chairman Kevin Warsh's tenure. Kashkari, though, said Warsh, who in the past has expressed a preference for lower rates, did not pressure him.

"He said to me, 'Do what you think is the right thing to do for the economy.' And I said, 'I really appreciate that.'" Kashkari said.

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