Copper strength has returned to the London Metal Exchange this week as futures top $14,000 a ton. Another leg higher could be imminent, pushing prices into blue-sky territory as traders weigh tightening global supplies against robust metal inflows into the US ahead of President Trump's expected tariff decision.
The Commerce Department was expected to deliver its tariff recommendation by June 30, but no decision has been announced. On national security grounds, the agency is expected to impose import levies of up to 50% on semi-finished and derivative copper products under Section 232. The policy aims to protect domestic manufacturing and reduce foreign reliance, addressing supply chain risks from major exporters like Chile, Peru, and Canada.
Bloomberg reports more than 200,000 tons of copper flowed into US ports in July, the largest ever monthly inflow in data going back to 2014. High US prices have kept the trade profitable.
As a result, this has added to a massive hoard in U.S. warehouses and ports, while supplies in the rest of the world are dwindling.
LME inventories sank to a five-month low, while a widening backwardation signaled increasing pressure on near-term supplies. LME copper settled 1.4% higher at $14,066.50 a ton, while Comex futures rose as much as 2.3% to approach May's record high.
The tightening is visible in the LME forward curve. Nearby contracts traded at a $99.50-a-ton premium to three-month futures, up from about $30 a week earlier - the widest backwardation since January. This structure suggests pressure on short-term supplies.
Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina told clients earlier this summer that his team "wasn't bullish enough on copper," adding, "We now have the highest copper price forecast on the Street as we see strong US industrial demand and still tight supply."
Beyond Jefferies, HSBC, and Goldman, JPMorgan analysts have also told clients that the copper upcycle is being driven by a tightening supply backdrop, accelerating power-grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification. Taken together, some of Wall Street's top metals desks have warned about a sustained break above $14,000 on the LME.
However, Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball recently pointed out that a tariff disappointment, stronger dollar, or AI-led selloff would expose the growing bullish speculative bets on copper (read here).