2027年生产的所有内存均已售罄。
2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

原始链接: https://www.ign.com/articles/ramageddon-continues-another-year-as-2027-memory-capacity-is-reportedly-sold-out

一份新报告指出,全球内存短缺现象将持续数年。据报道,三星、SK 海力士和美光这几家主要制造商的 DRAM 和 HBM 产能已被订购一空,直至 2027 年。受人工智能公司大规模长期采购协议的驱动,这种供应锁定预计将在可预见的未来导致消费级内存价格居高不下,且难以买到。 这一影响不仅限于系统内存;NAND 闪存的需求也在增加。虽然 NAND 的产能尚未被完全消化,但过去六个月中 SSD 的价格已经大幅上涨。这种趋势目前正在硬件市场蔓延,推高了游戏主机和电脑配件的成本。除非产能有所扩张或人工智能驱动的市场发生转变,否则消费者应为硬件领域持续的价格上涨和供应紧张做好准备。

近期的一场 Hacker News 讨论指出,有报道称 2027 年的内存产能已被预订一空。 这一消息在社区中引发了不同的反应。一些评论者嘲讽了此前认为内存成本可以忽略不计的开发者,而另一些人则质疑这种采购趋势的合理性,并争论这是否属于“倒卖”。然而,有用户指出,“倒卖”一词通常适用于活动门票;而在当前情况下,据报道,各大公司采购内存是为了自身运营使用,而非为了转售。 普遍观点认为,人工智能行业的持续繁荣是导致此次供应紧缺的主要驱动力。一些参与讨论的人对这种需求的持续性表示怀疑,担心当前的“人工智能泡沫”最终可能会破裂。为了跟踪这些市场状况的实际影响,用户建议密切关注 PCPartPicker 等平台上的价格走势。
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原文

It feels like no matter where I look recently, there's more evidence that the RAM crisis isn't ending any time soon. Now, a new report suggests that all three memory manufacturers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — have collectively sold through their 2027 memory manufacturing capacity to, you guessed it, AI companies.

According to a report from Digitimes and spotted by TweakTown, all DRAM and HBM capacity has been sold through for 2027, with no further supply planned. (The companies themselves have not yet confirmed this to be the case.) Of course, that only means that retail prices are going to go up even further in the near future.

Selling through all the capacity for next year would be bad enough for consumers, but the problem is that most of the companies buying up this capacity have done so through long-term purchasing agreements, essentially pre-ordering memory that hasn't even been manufactured yet over a five-year term. Unless more capacity opens up somewhere in the next few years, it's hard to imagine that RAM will become more affordable and less scarce any time soon.

It's not just memory that's affected. According to that Digitimes report, NAND storage is growing in demand too. Luckily, NAND capacity hasn't been completely absorbed, because there are more companies supplying the stuff. But it's not exactly hard to see that SSDs have been growing steadily more expensive over the last six months or so.

Just look at the Western Digital SN7100, a pretty bog-standard PCIe 4 drive. According to Camelcamelcamel, it was about $110 in January for 1TB of storage, but now it's 52% more expensive, costing $189 before the tiny discount that Amazon currently has running. If NAND manufacturing capacity grows as scarce as RAM, I can only imagine how much that drive is going to cost this time next year.

All I know is that I grow weary of covering the RAM crisis, but it's hard to look at anything in the hardware space and not see the effects. Just this month, the Xbox Series X went up in price, and a month ago, the Steam Machine came out at a higher price than Valve wanted because of the higher cost of memory. At this point, all I can do is beg for the AI bubble to burst so I can at least buy a decent kit of RAM for less than $500 again.

Jackie Thomas is the Hardware and Buying Guides Editor at IGN and the PC components queen. You can follow her @Jackiecobra

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