杰夫·柯里:别盯着91美元的布伦特原油了,真正的危机是170美元的柴油
Jeff Currie: Forget $91 Brent, The Real Crisis Is $170 Diesel

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/jeff-currie-forget-91-brent-real-crisis-170-diesel

尽管布伦特原油价格目前约为90美元,但能源专家杰夫·柯里(Jeff Currie)警告称,这一价格点掩盖了脆弱的现实。真正的危机在于消费者实际购买的成品油,即汽油、柴油和航空燃油。 从历史上看,原油价格与成品油成本同步,但这种相关性现已瓦解。由于中国炼厂开工率停滞以及原油供应受阻,成品油价格已显著高于原油价格;例如,欧洲柴油的价格几乎是布伦特原油的两倍。 柯里指出,政府通过释放战略储备来掩盖短缺的举措,制造了一种“供应充足的幻觉”。与以往的波动不同,当前的供需错配源于下游市场深层的结构性紧缺。这会带来深远的通胀后果,因为柴油价格飙升会直接推高航运、公路运输和工业生产的成本。 虽然炼油商最终会通过提高产量来利用高利润并填补缺口,但投资者仍被那些不再能反映当前能源市场严峻现实的原油基准价格所误导。

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原文

Brent at $90.94 looks almost civilized. Jeff Currie thinks that is exactly the problem: everyone is staring at crude while the real energy shock is already showing up in the fuels people actually buy.

As OilPrice reports, "Nobody on the planet earth consumes crude oil,” Currie told CNBC. Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look considerably uglier.

European diesel was trading around $170 per barrel during the interview, Currie said, almost twice Brent’s current $90.94. WTI was trading at $84.94 Tuesday.

Historically, crude and refined-product prices moved closely enough that crude served as a reasonable shorthand for the broader energy market. Currie says that relationship has broken down.

Part of the disconnect came from roughly 100 million to 120 million barrels of crude trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz following a surge in supplies in late June and early July. China then cut refinery runs, which helped keep crude prices softer but made product supplies tighter.

In other words, China did not solve the shortage. It moved it downstream.

Currie also argues governments have spent decades creating an “illusion of abundance” during supply disruptions by releasing strategic reserves and talking markets down. That strategy has worked before. This disruption, he said, is different because of its scale, duration, and the increasingly tight product market.

The inflation implications are considerably less academic. CNBC noted that gasoline prices are about 30% higher than a year ago, while diesel is up 46%. Diesel feeds directly into trucking, shipping and industrial costs.

Currie expects the crude-product dislocation to eventually correct as refiners chase historically high margins and increase runs.

Until then, $91 Brent may be giving investors a comforting picture of an oil market that consumers stopped living in weeks ago.

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