With 74 days remaining until the midterm elections and average retail ground-beef prices hovering near $7 per pound, President Trump said in a Truth Social post Friday morning that his administration will temporarily waive certain tariffs on ground-beef imports. The move follows our Monday report highlighting signs that consumers are balking at record beef prices, with demand destruction beginning to surface against a backdrop of household stress, including Walmart sales that missed estimates and dismal July retail-sales data.
"Today, I concluded a deal to substantially lower the price of ground beef for working American families. As everyone knows, under President Biden, beef prices soared at their fastest rate and the American beef herd fell to its smallest size in modern history," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump continued, "As we work to rebuild this herd and help our ranchers, for the next 90 days, the United States will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out-of-quota tariff."
He concluded, "We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices. This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again."
The temporary import waiver appears intended to address affordability concerns in supermarket aisles ahead of the midterm elections.
Because the relief is temporary, the longer-term supply backdrop remains challenging. Bank of America analysts recently cited Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, who warned that the US cattle cycle is unlikely to improve anytime soon and that beef prices are poised to remain elevated through at least next year.
Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the national average price of ground beef in supermarkets is hovering just below $7 per pound, a record high, as a prolonged cattle shortage shows no signs of abating anytime soon.
New data from Chicago-based market research company Circana, first published by Bloomberg on Monday, show that beef sales volumes declined .3% during the 13 weeks through mid-July. Volumes had risen about 5% during the same period in each of the previous two years. The decline is notable because it occurred during the peak grilling season around Memorial Day and July Fourth. Translation: demand destruction.
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With the cattle cycle likely to take several years to rebound properly, we recently outlined the one overlooked protein that is far cheaper than beef (read here).