关税成本:美国对加拿大新关税所造成的影响分析
The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

原始链接: https://thetariffcost.com/

本资源利用美国普查局及加拿大政府的公开数据集,对美加关税的经济影响进行了数据驱动的分析。 该分析区分了两种主要的税收负担: 1. **美国进口关税:** 美国进口商对加拿大商品支付的关税。本网站追踪这些实际征收额,并提供了一个模型,用以估算这些成本可能对美国家庭产生的影响。 2. **加拿大反制关税:** 对美国出口至加拿大商品的征税,这直接影响美国生产商。本网站编制了这些特定产品、税率(即将于九月实施的措施税率高达 50%)以及受影响行业的清单。 至关重要的是,本报告通过将硬数据与预测区分开来,保持了透明度。尽管报告追踪了能源进口和出口价值,但避免了就业岗位流失数量或具体价格传导预测等投机性指标,因为这些数据无法通过当前资料准确衡量。通过按州、行业和产品类别筛选贸易数据,该工具为理解两国之间当前及即将实施的贸易壁垒规模提供了一个透明的参考。

这篇 Hacker News 讨论帖探讨了美国对加拿大征收新关税所带来的经济与政治影响,其起因是一个分析该关税对美国消费者成本影响的网站。 讨论主要分为以下几个核心领域: * **关税的经济学:** 评论者们争论关税是否属于“向本国公民征税”。一些人认为进口关税实际上由当地消费者承担,另一些人则指出,来自加拿大的报复性关税会造成物价上涨和贸易减少的恶性循环。 * **乳制品争端:** 一个主要的争论点是加拿大的乳制品供给管理制度。批评者称其为旨在支持政治强势卡特尔的贸易保护主义;而辩护者则认为,这保护了国内产业免受美国大规模补贴乳制品的“倾销”影响。 * **地缘政治与信任:** 许多参与者认为这场贸易战并非出于经济战略考量,而是当前美国政府一种非理性的欺凌手段。人们深感担忧的是,这种行为正在破坏长期以来的盟友关系,削弱国际社会对美国的信任,并将加拿大推向其他贸易伙伴。 * **网站的有效性:** 一些用户认为该网站的内容是缺乏深度和清晰度的“AI 生成垃圾”,这反映出一种趋势:大语言模型正被用于大规模生产旨在迎合既定偏见的内容。
相关文章

原文

Know someone who should see this?

And Canada is taxing you back

What Canada is taxing

What Canada taxes are American exports, the things American workers grow and build. Today the list is steel and almost nothing else. September's includes groceries.

Tariff lines by product category

The rates

Every line Canada taxes today is 25%. September adds a 50% tier and puts hundreds of American steel and aluminum lines in it.

Tariff lines by rate, from September 8

Look it up

Every American product on Canada's list, all of them. Filter it, or search for something specific.

Tariff item Product Category Rate Applies

Pass it on

These numbers are public. Almost nobody has seen them. If you know someone who should, send them the link.

Method

Every number on this page is measured, with one exception. Nothing here is a forecast or a projection. The exception is What tariffs cost your household, above, which needs an assumption no dataset can supply. It says so at the top of the section and carries a label wherever it appears. Elsewhere, when a question could only be answered by assuming something, we say so and leave the number out.

Six public datasets, all free, all citable:

  • Duty actually collected on Canadian goods, and the value it was charged on — U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports (CAL_DUT_YR, CON_VAL_YR).
  • U.S. exports to Canada by state and commodity — U.S. Census Bureau, exports/statehs.
  • U.S. exports to Canada by state and industry — U.S. Census Bureau, exports/statenaics.
  • U.S. energy imports from Canada by state — U.S. Census Bureau, imports/statehs, HS 2709/2710/2711/2716.
  • Household count — U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-year 2024, table B11001.
  • Canada's counter-tariff list — Department of Finance Canada, complete list of U.S. products subject to counter tariffs.

Two tariffs, two payers. Canada's counter-tariffs are paid by Canadian importers and show up in Canadian prices. What they hit on this side is American exporters, the people who make what is on the list. Washington's tariffs on Canadian goods are paid at the American border by American importers, and that is the duty counted in What you have already paid. Two different taxes with two different payers. Do not add them together.

What this page does not tell you, because the data cannot:

  • How much of the duty on Canadian goods reaches a shelf price. That is pass-through, and it is a margin decision made firm by firm. The Canada figures above assume nothing about it. They are duty collected at the border. The one modelled number on this page does state a pass-through rate, but for tariffs on all U.S. imports rather than Canada's alone. See below.
  • What a tariff will do to any future price, at the pump or anywhere else.
  • How many jobs are at risk. Turning export dollars into a job count needs an attribution model we do not have.
  • What share of any industry's exports is tariffed. The tariff list is classified by HS and the industry data by NAICS; joining them takes a concordance we do not have, and guessing one would manufacture a number.

Counting tariff lines tells you how wide the list is, not how much money is on it. One line can carry a billion dollars of trade or almost none. That is why the dollar figures come from trade data instead of from the list.

联系我们 contact @ memedata.com