The Department of Health and Human Services commissioned a study that found a measurable link between accepting transgender ideology and supporting left-wing political violence.

Researchers at Rutgers University, the Manhattan Institute and the Network Contagion Research Institute produced the report, called "Where the Clinic Meets the Movement: Does Gender Ideology Arm Left-Wing Authoritarian Psychology?" which was obtained by the New York Post ahead of its release.

The team surveyed 1,208 American adults on the importance of affirming gender identity, on perceived threats to transgender people from groups the survey lists as "white supremacists, men, the Supreme Court, etc.," and on support for anti-democratic behaviors.

To gauge a respondent's degree of support for gender ideology, researchers built a metric they call the Clinical Gender Affirmation Scale (CGAS), drawn from what they describe as "consensus positions" of the American Psychological Association, the American Psychiatric Association and the World Professional Association for Transgender Health, chosen because they "represent the official scientific and clinical establishment on care for individuals who identify as transgender."

Researchers then asked respondents about six potential targets of political violence. The report describes them as "killing Charlie Kirk, killing Donald Trump, killing Brian Thompson, arson of ICE buildings, damaging wealthy people's property, and violence against police."

Across preregistered analyses, CGAS and related gender ideological-belief measures were strongly associated with left-wing authoritarianism (LWA), with Spearman correlations ranging from ρ = 0.44 to ρ = 0.59. CGAS also significantly predicted LWA, accounting for 31.5% of its variance. In ordinal regressions predicting CGAS, political identity was the strongest predictor, but LWA remained an independent predictor after controlling for political identity and age. LWA and CGAS were also positively associated with justification of political violence across six targets: killing Charlie Kirk, killing Donald Trump, killing Brian Thompson, arson of ICE buildings, damaging wealthy people's property, and violence against police. Both independently predicted all six violence outcomes after controlling for left-wing political identity.

These findings suggest that gender ideology is associated with LWA and willingness to justify political violence. Experimental research is needed to determine causality.

The report's conclusion reaches past correlation. Gender ideology, the authors write, "may function as an ideological accelerant, telling left-wing authoritarian psychology who the enemy is, why the situation is urgent, and - in those already disposed toward force - that violence is legitimate."

Researchers also examined what they term catastrophizing beliefs. The report assessed "the perceived likelihood that a genocide of individuals that identify as transgender is currently under way," alongside what it calls "associate extremist responses," including support for censoring and punishing people who reject transgender ideology or ignore Supreme Court rulings on gender issues. The authors treat the strength of that connection as unsettled. "We have good reasons to expect that LWA and CGAS will predict support for these sorts of anti-democratic beliefs, but those are empirical questions which will be answered in the analysis that are ongoing," they write.

Study researcher Colin Wright called the results among the most striking he has encountered. "One of our study's most interesting and perhaps shocking findings was that accepting gender ideology appeared to augment authoritarian attitudes on support for political violence," Wright told the Post. He offered one possible mechanism. "We believe this may result from gender ideology defining specific oppressed classes and their oppressors, and the promotion of extreme narratives of harm for those who refuse to affirm transgender identities both socially and medically," Wright said. He stopped short of calling that explanation settled. "That is only speculative at this point, but we are addressing this directly in a follow-up report," Wright said.

The rise of violence linked to transgender perpetrators or allies is hard to dismiss. Last year, Tyler Robinson allegedly shot Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk in the neck while he addressed a crowd at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Robinson reportedly had a relationship with a transgender roommate. In 2022, Nicholas Roske, who identifies as a transgender woman, approached Justice Brett Kavanaugh's home armed, with the attempt to assassinate him. 

Individuals who identified as transgender carried out separate school shootings in Minnesota and Tennessee in the years since. None of this proves causation, and the study's authors concede as much themselves, and a follow-up study is in the works.

"A second study is being designed to address some of the limitations of the study described herein," the authors explain in the conclusion. "This second study will take the causal direction issue head on by using an experimental design to test whether exposure to CGAS-consistent content produces the patterns predicted by the present theory. The cross-sectional correlations reported here constitute the discovery sample; the planned pre-registered experiment will constitute the confirmatory causal test."