“升级陷阱”:罗伯特·佩普抨击贝森特针对伊朗的“经济诺曼底登陆”计划
"Escalation Trap": Robert Pape Blasts Bessent's "Economic D-Day" Targeting Iran

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escalation-trap-robert-pape-blasts-bessents-economic-d-day-targeting-iran

芝加哥大学教授罗伯特·佩普(Robert Pape)批评了财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)针对伊朗采取的“经济诺曼底登陆”式制裁,称该策略是危险的“升级陷阱”。佩普在“Breaking Points”播客节目中指出,历史先例(包括一战和二战期间的封锁)表明,如果没有大规模军事冲突相伴,经济压力几乎无法迫使政权屈服。 佩普认为,贝森特的策略是战争之外的一种欺骗性选择,主要目的是向国内受众证明在诉诸武力前已穷尽外交手段。此外,他警告称,这种激进的经济围堵有引发报复性螺旋的风险,并将此与珍珠港事件前美国对日本实施的制裁相提并论。 尽管有这些警告,特朗普政府仍致力于推行“经济弃儿行动”(Operation Economic Outcast)。贝森特已表示将加大行动力度,承诺每周推出二级制裁,旨在切断伊朗与美元金融系统的联系。通过针对协助德黑兰贸易的全球实体,本届政府旨在孤立该政权,但如佩普等批评人士认为,这项政策很可能会将美国拖入更深层的军事对抗,而非避免对抗。

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原文

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape tore into Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's so-called "Economic D-Day" campaign against Iran, branding it a dangerous "escalation trap" that history shows will not force Tehran to fold, and may instead drag the United States deeper into war.

Appearing recently on the "Breaking Points" podcast, Pape, a longtime scholar of air power, blockades and sanctions, argued that Bessent is selling maximum economic pressure as an alternative to more fighting.

"That's not what it is," Pape told "Breaking Points" co-host Saagar Enjeti. "What it's really going to lead to is another escalation trap. And if anything, if he in fact goes forward, it would be more military war."

Pape said the measures have never on their own won a major war or toppled a government in a major conflict. The professor highlighted the British blockade of Germany in World War I and the U.S. blockade of Japan in World War II, both of which ended only after grinding ground campaigns and, in Japan's case, the atomic bombs."

"Bessent is really not doing a good service to the world by saying that this is an off-ramp to escalation," Pape said. "All we need is one, sir. One case. And you know what? There's not a case."

Pape also warned that targets often lash back, explaining that sanctions slapped on Japan helped produce the Pearl Harbor attack, which he called a well-known and uncontroversial point, and that tightening the noose on Iran and its trading partners, including China, risks a similar spiral in which Tehran strikes back and Washington is forced to escalate further."

These are not off-ramps to war," Pape said. "They're effectively the Western way of war because they persuade liberal audiences [we've] done everything you could do, so force is a last resort."

Pape's warning comes as Bessent signaled the pressure campaign against Iran is only getting started. The Treasury secretary said Sunday, ahead of a Group of 20 financial leaders meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, that new secondary sanctions will roll out every week to intensify the squeeze on Iran.

"You're going to see a lot more of these every week," the top Trump official said.

Last week, Bessent launched the Trump administration's long-awaited "Operation Economic Outcast," unveiling sweeping sanctions designed to sever Iran from the dollar-based financial system and punish any foreign government or entity that keeps facilitating Tehran's trade. The first wave targeted nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels tied to the regime's nuclear, missile, cyber and oil networks, spanning brokerage firms, financial intermediaries and shadow-fleet ships operating across China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Switzerland and Europe.

In recent days, the U.S. Treasury blacklisted the UAE branches of Egypt's Banque Misr, alleging financial ties to Iran and money laundering, and cut those branches off from the U.S. financial system for obtaining dollars.

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