Brazilian socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's lead over right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro continues to narrow, according to new polling data released early Wednesday. The latest polling extends the trend we highlighted last week, showing that the narrowing margin between the two candidates has transformed October’s presidential election a coin toss.
According to a Quaest poll commissioned by TV Globo, Lula leads Bolsonaro 42% to 41% in a potential runoff. The one-point gap is within the survey’s two-point margin of error and marks a decline from Lula’s three-point advantage in the previous poll released in mid-August.
A separate BTG Pactual/Nexus poll published at the start of the week also placed Lula ahead by only one point. An AtlasIntel survey conducted for Bloomberg showed the president leading by 4.5 points, although that advantage narrowed slightly from July.
The shrinking gap comes as federal authorities investigate allegations of corruption and influence peddling involving Lula’s son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha. The probe focuses on cannabis programs linked to Brazil’s Health Ministry.
Lulinha has denied wrongdoing. Lula has not been implicated and has said he will not shield his son from investigators, although he believes Lulinha is innocent.
AtlasIntel’s findings show that the corruption probe has inflicted political damage on the socialist president, threatening to turn the election into a coin toss.
Last Friday, Alexandre de Ázara, a managing director and chief economist for Brazil at UBS, told clients that “the gap is closing” in Brazil’s presidential race as Bolsonaro pulls within striking distance of President Lula.
Polymarket odds show that Bolsonaro is closing in on Lula.
A Flávio Bolsonaro win in October would not start a right turn in South America. It would effectively close it.
By mid-2026, South America had already flipped. Argentina (Milei), Chile (Kast), Colombia (de la Espriella), Peru (Keiko Fujimori), Ecuador (Noboa), Bolivia (Paz), and Paraguay (Peña) sit on the right.
The remaining large left-wing governments are Brazil and Uruguay. Brazil accounts for about half of South America’s GDP and population. If Brazil goes right, the region would be entirely aligned with the Trump administration and would be on track to rid itself of nation-killing socialism and other failed progressive experiments.