越来越多的证据表明自动驾驶汽车可以挽救生命
Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives

原始链接: https://spectrum.ieee.org/are-self-driving-cars-safe

尽管公众持怀疑态度,但越来越多的研究表明,自动驾驶汽车(AV)和高级驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)比人类驾驶员安全得多。包括美国公路安全保险协会(IIHS)近期分析在内的多项研究证实,紧急制动等自动化功能可大幅减少碰撞和伤害。 Waymo的自动驾驶出租车数据进一步支持了这一点,数据显示在城市环境中,其造成伤亡的碰撞事故率比人类驾驶员低13倍。尽管在测试环境受限和数据报告不一致方面仍存在顾虑,但IIHS确认自动驾驶汽车的碰撞频率确实低于人类。专家认为,将自动驾驶汽车视为一种公共卫生干预手段,而非仅仅是技术进步,对于未来的普及至关重要。全球每年约有116万人死于交通事故,通过自动化手段哪怕实现小幅的事故减少,也能挽救数十万人的生命。为了推进这一进程,联邦监管机构正着手建立国家性能和安全标准,这标志着自动驾驶汽车正被视为改善道路安全的重要工具。

近期 Hacker News 上的一篇讨论围绕 IEEE 的一篇文章展开,该文章认为自动驾驶汽车已被证明能够挽救生命。此讨论引发了用户不同的反应: * **对数据的质疑:** 一些评论者指出,该文章过度依赖汇总研究,而非提供充足的原始数据,并暗示像“快速行动,打破常规”(move fast and break things)这类行业口号可能会阻碍安全发展。 * **关于“人在回路”的讨论:** 用户探讨了完全自动驾驶技术是否真的有必要,并提出将高级驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)与人工监管相结合,足以缓解完全自动驾驶和完全人工驾驶车辆带来的大部分风险。 * **版主行动:** 该讨论串还强调了对社区准则的严格执行,网站版主“dang”公开宣布封禁了一名用户,原因是其持续发布引战内容及无实质意义的帖子。
相关文章

原文

Plenty of people remain spooked by autonomous vehicles, or AVs. Some experts and policymakers have cautioned that AVs won’t necessarily make roads safer. When it comes to partial or full autonomy, the picture isn’t entirely clear, in part because there aren’t enough self-driving cars to make meaningful apples-to-apples comparisons.

Yet mounting research suggests that self-driving cars crash significantly less often than people, and with far fewer injuries. Evidence also shows that advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and other building blocks of autonomy—some of which are already mandated on every new car—are also reducing occupant and pedestrian injuries and deaths, along with insurance claims.

On the ADAS front, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety found that automatic emergency braking (AEB) systems that recognize people in front of the car cut pedestrian crashes by 27 percent. Those AEB systems are mandated for all light vehicles in the U.S. by 2029, and more than 90 percent of new models already comply under a voluntary automakers’ agreement. A separate IIHS study found that automated braking greatly reduced rear-end crashes, by 50 percent, and their injuries by 56 percent. The Highway Loss Data Institute found that cars with AEB alone showed a 13 percent drop in property-damage claims. Cars that bundled ADAS features, including automatic braking for pedestrians, adaptive cruise control, and lane-departure warnings, saw claims reductions up to 39 percent.

Move to Level 4 autonomy, and Waymo says its robotaxis have now given 20 million paid rides over 220 million miles, the equivalent of 250 lifetimes of driving. In March, Waymo’s independent study showed 92 percent fewer fatal or serious-injury crashes, a 13-fold reduction versus human drivers in comparable city environments. That included 92 percent fewer pedestrian injuries, 83 percent fewer crashes with airbag deployments, and 82 percent fewer crashes with any injuries whatsoever. That included a 96 percent reduction in injury-causing crashes at intersections, among the deadliest environments for any automobile.

How Does Limited Fair-Weather Data Compare to Traditional Crash Statistics?

A key question is whether Waymo’s robotaxis, currently limited to fair-weather operation in a handful of cities in the U.S., are directly comparable to humans driving a wider variety of roads in much more variable conditions.

The IIHS is looking to dig deeper by cleaning up often-incomplete data. Researchers estimate roughly half of human crashes go unreported, and up to one-third of injury accidents, because drivers hope to avoid insurance price hikes. That potentially skews safety numbers in favor of human drivers. And while Waymo leads the industry in transparency, and robotaxi operators are required to report even the tiniest scrape to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), not every company voluntarily reports their total miles driven.

The IIHS’s latest July study flatly stated that automated cars crash less often than people. But it also sought clarity by creating a more-reliable category of “police-reportable crashes.” It then compared crash rates of human-driven cars against Waymo taxis in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. Waymo’s Jaguar I-Pace taxis traveled about 50 million driverless miles over the study period, versus 222 billion human miles in the same cities.

In a potential boost for public trust, the study generally supported Waymo’s own findings. Waymo taxis were involved in 68 percent fewer crashes overall than human drivers: 76 percent lower in Phoenix, 71 percent in LA, and 35 percent in San Francisco. A 4 percent higher Waymo rate in Austin may reflect an extremely small sample size. Significantly, Waymo’s injury crashes were still 81 percent lower on a per-mile basis.

The industry and its supporters continue to press the safety advantages of autonomous vehicles that never get drunk, drowsy, or distracted. Yet for this fledgling AV industry, there are still no national performance or safety standards. A crazy quilt of state or local regulations can allow or prohibit their deployment. That balkanized approach makes it harder to compare crash rates, according to the IIHS, which is calling for better federal reporting standards.

A posting on the IIHS website quotes the institute’s director of statistical services, Eric Teoh: “Those are encouraging signs for the future of driverless vehicles.” Teoh, who was also the lead author of the institute’s study, added that “Now we need to get the data-collection system right, so that we can ensure that level of safety continues as these technologies become more prevalent.”

Amazon’s Zoox Gets an Exemption for its Robotaxis

On July 30, in a move seen as fast-tracking the tech’s deployment, NHTSA granted Zoox, a subsidiary of Amazon, the first-ever exemption from certain motor-vehicle safety standards. That will allow commercial operation of Zoox’s toaster-shaped robotaxis, which have no steering wheel or pedals aboard. The agency determined that Zoox’s purpose-built robotaxi “would provide an equivalent level of safety” as a compliant vehicle, thereby satisfying the standard for an exemption.

On that final day of the SAE’s Automated Transportation Symposium, NHTSA also announced a partnership with SAE Industry Technologies to develop the nation’s first performance and competency standards for AVs, via a three-year, $5 million “A2SCEND” consortium.

Some doctors and health professionals are arguing that policymakers need to stop viewing self-driving cars as a tech moonshot but rather as a critical public-health intervention. Jonathan Slotkin, a neurosurgeon, makes a powerful case for the medical and societal benefits of AVs. Researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health say that highlighting the social value of AVs is critical to driving public trust and adoption.

Consider that roughly 40,000 people in the U.S., including more than 7,000 pedestrians, are killed each year in roadway accidents. About 1.16 million people die in roadway crashes around the world, making them the leading cause of death for children and young adults between the ages of 5 and 29. Cutting that by even 50 percent—let alone the 90 percent reductions suggested by some studies—would save 580,000 lives a year. That social and economic gain would dwarf that of seat-belt adoption or anti–drunk driving campaigns.

This article was updated on 08 September 2026.

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