Oil is part of everyday life, even when you don't think about it. It's refined into fuels that power cars, move goods, and help farmers grow our food. It's also used to make things like the clothes we wear.

Since the US and Israel went to war with Iran in February 2026, the world has been using more oil than it produces. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are effectively closed to oil shipping, cutting off roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Russian refinery strikes and export bans are making the situation worse. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982.

The Depletion Ledger tracks oil supplies, fuel prices, and how the shortage affects people and businesses. You can use the charts below to see what's changed and explore three ways the crisis could unfold. The model estimates how long stored oil could last in each case, and keeps a record of its predictions so you can see how they hold up.