我常犯错
I am often wrong

原始链接: https://borischerny.com/management,/product/2026/09/19/I-am-often-wrong.html

作者概述了一套用于产品开发的一贯性、迭代式问题解决方法:搜集信息、界定问题、确立简易方案、设定目标以及采取紧急行动。由于该过程依赖于在获取新数据时更新个人的“先验知识”,作者认为由此产生的“反复折腾”或波动是寻找正确解决方案中健康且必要的组成部分。 最常见的失败模式发生在问题或方案定义不清时,这会导致不必要的复杂化。为了缓解这一问题,作者强调了持续反馈循环和实时协作的重要性。最终,作者拥抱错误,将其视为完善认知、加速学习并实现更清晰、更有效成果的宝贵催化剂。

这篇 Hacker News 帖子讨论了一篇题为《我常犯错》(I Am Often Wrong)的博文,该文概述了一种个人决策与管理框架。 讨论显示,人们对作者的方法存在严重分歧。批评者认为,将僵化的个人框架强加于团队会适得其反,并造成一种“自以为是”的管理文化。反对者特别指出,强制要求不断的反馈以及将“紧迫感”作为默认设置,会导致员工倦怠。 相反,支持者则为该方法辩护,将其与亚马逊等公司使用的结构化流程进行比较。他们认为,要求团队成员遵循系统化的记录方法能带来更明智的决策,优于非结构化的方案。其他评论者则关注作者的语气,认为身居要职的领导者应优先考虑做事方法稳健、审慎,而非轻率。总体而言,该帖探讨了规范化管理框架在不同执行方式下,既可能提升组织效率,也可能损害团队士气。
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原文

September 19, 2026

[I shared this note with my team earlier this week, and am posting it here as well. I hope it is interesting or helpful for others working on building product in the age of AI.]

Something that people learn quickly when they work with me is that my approach to pretty much every problem is:

  1. Understand the available information
  2. Gather missing information
  3. Define the problem
  4. Define a clear and simple approach to solve the problem
  5. Define a goal
  6. Act with urgency to achieve the goal

Along the way, I will often learn new information. That means going back and redefining #3-5, and repeating. This process is iterative and for complicated problems, it can take many tries to get right. This can feel thrashy, but if you are aware that it’s all part of the process, and that the only way to really solve a problem is to adjust when there is new data, then the churn is healthy. When there’s new data, you have to update your priors.

I apply something like these six steps for pretty much every problem, and pretty much every product (a product solves a problem for users). I apply this rough framework many times on most days.

Sometimes I will give feedback to people when they are missing steps in the framework, or are poorly executing some of the steps. I expect the same feedback in return. I try hard to give the feedback in real time, so the person/team can learn more quickly. Most often, the failure mode I see is (3) failure to clearly define the problem, and (4) failure to define an approach that is clear and simple. When one of these is missing, it leads to complex plans and unclear success criteria. For complicated problems, lack of clarity can be hard to spot if you’re the one making the plan, making it even more important to get feedback from people.

If part of this meta-process is meta-wrong, I am open to changing it.

All this to say, I love being wrong. It is my favorite, because it helps me more clearly define the problem, find the right solution, learn more quickly, and solve the problem.

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