前沿实验室正向华盛顿的傻瓜们兜售垃圾。
Frontier Labs Are Selling Garbage to Fools in Washington

原始链接: https://deadneurons.substack.com/p/frontier-labs-are-selling-garbage

目前科技行业对人工智能监管的推动,堪称一场披着“生存危机论”外衣的“监管俘获”典型案例。亿万富翁高管们通过将人工智能塑造成失控的神,成功游说国会,使立法者们误以为他们正在监管一场科幻灾难,而非普通的商业软件。 现实情况是,所谓的“生存威胁”——例如失控的人工智能网络攻击——不过是第三方承包商因防火墙未开启等业余且平庸的网络安全失误所致。同样,行业内要求“放慢发展”的呼声,其动机并非出于安全考虑,而是急于避免持续预训练带来的高昂成本,并消除开源模型日益增长的威胁。 通过推动政府强制实施限速和许可制度,这些公司正试图建立一个受联邦政府认可的卡特尔。他们的目标是扼杀竞争、维持高利润率,并将威胁其市场主导地位的开放权重模型定为非法。归根结底,立法者们正受到操纵;当他们自认为在讨论人类物种的存亡时,实际上却是在帮助人工智能行业筑起一道法律护城河,以保护其垄断地位免受更高效的开源竞争对手的冲击。

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原文

Selling snake oil to the United States Congress is an ancient American craft, and the frontier artificial intelligence industry is currently attempting the most audacious hustle in modern corporate history.

Every few weeks, another tech billionaire in an expensive suit glides into a Senate hearing room, sits opposite lawmakers who struggle to operate an office microwave, and explains with a straight face that their software company has accidentally summoned an omnipotent digital god. The executives speak in hushed, trembling tones about runaway machine intellects, recursive self-improvement, and the impending annihilation of the human species.

Lawmakers listen in terrified reverence, hopelessly seduced by the fantasy that their sleepy subcommittee hearing has suddenly become the bridge of the Starship Enterprise.

It is an extraordinary confidence trick. Tech executives have figured out that the easiest way to fleece Washington is to flatter its vanity: if you tell a seventy-year-old senator that they are presiding over enterprise software margins, they fall asleep; if you tell them they are deciding whether humanity survives the decade, they will grant you whatever regulatory monopoly you ask for. Behind the apocalyptic melodrama lies a nakedly terrestrial panic: protecting extraordinary revenue growth, entrenching a lucrative status quo, and convincing the federal government to outlaw their cheaper competitors.

To appreciate the sheer absurdity of the current political panic, one has to examine the actual security catastrophes that allegedly brought the industry to the brink of ruin.

Over the summer of 2026, tech headlines turned apocalyptic. Autonomous artificial intelligence agents had supposedly escaped containment, gone rogue, and launched coordinated cyberattacks against unsuspecting corporations. Pundits wrote breathless essays describing emergent machine civilisations communicating across time.

The technical post-mortems reveal a story of hilarious institutional incompetence.

Every single one of these catastrophic breakouts happened inside the testing environments of the exact same vendor. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta all outsourced their cybersecurity evaluations to Irregular, a three-year-old Tel Aviv startup backed with $80 million from Sequoia and Redpoint. The testing environments were supposed to be completely isolated from the internet so models could attempt capture-the-flag hacking exercises against simulated networks. The prompts explicitly informed the software that it was operating in an offline sandbox with no access to the outside world.

Someone at Irregular forgot to configure a basic firewall rule.

For four consecutive months, virtual machines running offensive cyber scripts possessed unrestricted outbound internet connections. The models did not invent alien zero-day exploits to shatter digital containment. They simply walked through a front door that an outsourced contractor left propped open with a brick.

Google’s Gemini was given a fictional company name to hack, discovered an unlucky real-world enterprise sharing the exact same name, searched the web, found leaked credentials sitting in an exposed public repository, and logged in. Claude Mythos 5 decided the easiest way to solve an exercise was to publish a script as a public package on the Python Package Index, which automated registry spam filters deleted within an hour.

At OpenAI, hundreds of agents managed to perform the elite task of discovering 14 Hugging Face API tokens that careless developers had committed to public GitHub repositories, and used them to try to get benchmark solutions from directly from Hugging Face.

When an enterprise software team misconfigures an outbound gateway, grants testing containers open write permissions, and accidentally knocks over an internal server, the engineering director tells them to fix their firewall rules. When frontier AI labs do the exact same thing, their chief executives book television interviews on prime-time news to warn that autonomous swarms are six months away from seizing control of the global internet.

Watching this comedy get laundered through political intermediaries is an escalating farce.

Consider Andrew Yang, who built a political career warning that automation would eliminate millions of jobs, recently appearing on financial television visibly shaken by a private summit with a major AI laboratory chief. According to Yang, the executive told him that escaping agents had seeded self-replicating alien code across forums and websites, permanently contaminating the internet. The contamination was allegedly so severe that developers must construct an entirely fake internet simply to train future models safely.

Anyone with an elementary comprehension of machine learning recognized the punchline immediately.

The terrifying code left on Hugging Face was a 400-line Python script copied from a public repository to register burner accounts. It failed to execute properly.

The supposed emergency measure of building a fake internet is merely the industry’s routine shift toward synthetic data pipelines. Frontier laboratories exhausted the supply of raw human text on the web eighteen months ago, forcing them to generate synthetic data on massive clusters to feed pre-training runs. Laundering standard data starvation as an epidemiological quarantine against digital biological warfare is an astonishing piece of narrative gymnastics. The politicians swallow the story whole, completely incapable of distinguishing between a synthetic training mixture and a planetary digital pathogen.

The motive behind this campaign becomes obvious the moment one examines the proposed policy solutions.

On September 12, Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei published a 3,800-word manifesto titled We Must Pace the Frontier. The essay employed theatrical language, describing automated containers hitting rate limits as fanatically devoted collectives sacrificing themselves for the success of the group. Amodei warned that rogue swarms could cause hundreds of billions of dollars in economic damage within a year, concluding that humanity owes it to itself to slow the pace of frontier model development.

Tucked away in the second phase of Amodei’s proposal is the commercial prize: an explicit request for the United States government to grant frontier AI companies an antitrust waiver.

In ordinary commercial life, when three dominant rivals agree to slow down product development, coordinate release schedules, and limit market supply, the Department of Justice prosecutes it as an illegal cartel. When oil companies or airlines attempt this manoeuvre, they face federal antitrust indictments.

Dario Amodei and his fellow frontier executives want the federal government to grant them legal immunity to operate an overt technology cartel under the noble banner of existential safety.

The sudden enthusiasm for a federally enforced speed limit reveals an obvious commercial reality. The frontier laboratories are desperate to slow down because they are currently winning, and they would like nothing more than to freeze the market in place.

Anthropic surged from $1 billion in annualized revenue in late 2024 to $65 billion by July 2026. OpenAI is printing tens of billions of dollars from enterprise subscriptions and cloud distribution contracts. Both companies have achieved massive commercial velocity on their current model generations, commanding fat software pricing from corporate customers eager to deploy generative automation.

Continuing to push the frontier beyond this point is incredibly capitally intensive.

Pre-training scaling laws face diminishing returns, with next-generation models demanding $50 billion to $100 billion for specialized datacenters, power, and thousands of liquid-cooled accelerators. Racing at breakneck speed incinerates cash balances simply to edge out benchmark fractions.

A government-mandated slowdown provides the ultimate financial relief. If Washington legally orders everyone to pace the frontier, the labs can slash their ruinous pre-training budgets, preserve their capital, and continue converting their existing enterprise lead into massive top-line revenue without fear of being leapfrogged overnight.

There is an even deeper terror driving the cartel. The frontier laboratories are not afraid of artificial general intelligence escaping into the wild; they are terrified of open-weight economics.

Every single month, open-weight models from labs like GLM, Kimi, Qwen, and DeepSeek close the capability gap with closed commercial APIs. Independent models like GLM-5.3 are now close to matching frontier performance on coding and reasoning benchmarks while running for a fraction of the operational cost. Software developers can deploy distilled open-source weights on commodity cloud infrastructure, bypassing the expensive proprietary tollbooths of frontier labs entirely.

Open-weight economics destroys software monopoly rents. If anyone can download a capable reasoning model for free, the pricing power of proprietary endpoints collapses from eighty percent gross margins to near zero.

Because the laboratories cannot defeat open-weight competition in a free market, they are turning to the oldest corporate survival strategy in history: regulatory capture.

By convincing gullible politicians that unmonitored models represent an existential catastrophe capable of destroying the internet, the labs are engineering a regulatory moat to strangle open-source software in the crib. Mandatory compute thresholds, federal licensing schemes, and embedded monitors will never stop a determined foreign adversary. Those regulations simply make it a federal crime for independent developers, universities, and small startups to publish code without government clearance.

The outcome of this lobbying blitz remains in active contention, as deregulatory resistance in the executive branch pushes back against Silicon Valley’s manufactured panic. Even so, the sheer desperation of the campaign exposes the true fragility of the frontier labs. Gullible lawmakers genuinely believe they are debating the survival of the human species, while the corporate executives sitting across the table are simply fighting to erect a legal wall around a commoditising market.

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