President Trump's abrupt Saturday return to the White House from Camp David, where he had been slated to spend the whole weekend, had set off an avalanche of speculation on potential military escalation in the Middle East.
The NY Times and Axios are reporting that the Commander-in-Chief was close to a ordering new anti-Houthi intervention but that he backed out, TACOing once again but this time in pretty rapid order.
"President Trump over the weekend considered ordering a strike against the Houthis in Yemen before deciding to hold off for now, two U.S. officials said," Axios writes Monday. "Trump was caught between wanting to help his friend and ally, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and avoiding getting entangled on a new front in the Middle East."
So now the nation stands on the brink of yet a separate Mideast adventure while the Iran conflict has yet to end, this time in Yemen, because Trump desires to "help his friend". But in the end he did not pull the trigger, for now at least.
The NY Times on Sunday laid out a wild, whiplash of a fast-paced timeline in terms of decision-making:
Mr. Trump had met with advisers just the day before and told them he did not favor strikes. But after speaking with the Saudi crown prince, he reversed himself and told the Pentagon to prepare for airstrikes against the Houthis.
But by midday Sunday, the president appeared to have reversed himself again. There would be no U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis — at least not for the time being, according to administration officials. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss military planning.
One wonders if Congress might ever be consulted, instead of going to war after a single phone call with 'friends' in Saudi Arabia and Israel?
Trump has reportedly been mulling what to do about the Yemen crisis for the last two weeks, especially as the Shia group backed by Tehran has ramped up attacks on Aramco facilities in the kingdom.
So far, the White House is only said to have authorized intelligence and targeting assistance. Still, the Houthis keep advancing, regional reports say, after having conquered Yemen's Red Sea coast. To review of some of our Monday morning coverage:
Brent crude oil prices are also lower despite news that Donald Trump had cut short a trip to Camp David to return to Washington, reports that Iran had activated its highest military readiness alert amid claims that the US is preparing to resume attacks, Houthi attacks on the Saudi capital Riyadh, and Pentagon Pizza Report activity suggestive of something afoot.
All of this was accompanied by fresh alerts for American travelers issued by US embassies across the whole Mideast region.
For a little trip down memory lane...
Even if Trump were to authorize new direct strikes on Yemen, any purely aerial campaign would be very unlikely to dislodge the Houthis. It could also serve to further divide already stretched-thin US forces and assets in the region. US assets operating over the Gulf area might have to be diverted.
The Houthi rebels have already endured literally dozens of major air raids from the US and Israelis stretching back through the Gaza war. The attacks seemed to only embolden them, and now they can put the chokehold on Red Sea shipping at any time they want.