当油价飙升时,钱都去了哪里?
When oil prices spike, where does the money go?

原始链接: https://theconversation.com/when-oil-prices-spike-where-does-the-money-go-280763

全球石油市场对地缘政治动荡高度敏感,2026年初美以与伊朗的冲突引发油价飙升便是明证。由于石油是交通、制造业和粮食生产不可或缺的基础商品,霍尔木兹海峡受阻等供应中断问题,不可避免地推高了全球企业和消费者的成本。 当油价飙升时,由此产生的意外之财会根据地区和所有权结构流向不同的受益者。在中东,高油价充实了国家预算;在美国,它为股东和企业带来了额外收入;在北海地区,它支持公共养老基金或政府服务;而在俄罗斯,它主要用于资助在国际制裁下的国家军工复合体。 归根结底,尽管消费者短期内别无选择,只能承担更高的价格,但这些经济冲击也成为了全球向非化石燃料能源转型的有力催化剂。

一则 Hacker News 讨论帖询问:油价上涨时谁会受益?评论者普遍认为,高油价会把更多收入转移给能够供应稀缺石油的生产商和炼油商,而消费者——尤其是贫困家庭——则要承担更高的交通、供暖和生产成本。政府可能通过税收、特许权使用费以及国有石油公司获利;贸易商、保险公司、运输企业和重建公司也可能从中获利。 讨论的一个主要争议集中在退休基金和指数基金:有些人认为普通劳动者可以通过投资间接受益;批评者则指出,股票所有权和投资回报高度集中在较富裕的人群中。他们还认为,当下的利润依赖债务、公共补贴,以及被转嫁给后代的环保成本。 其他讨论涉及石油输出国组织、战略石油储备、期货交易、保险成本和炼油能力限制。评论者说明,即使石油供应减少,稀缺性和缺乏弹性的需求也可能推高总支出;但对于油价冲击究竟会形成全面通胀,还是只是价格上涨的一个因素,评论者意见不一。讨论还质疑石油公司是否直接决定价格,还是仅仅在市场中以更高的出清价格成交;并批评相关文章低估了炼油能力,以及霍尔木兹海峡关闭等供应中断事件背后的地缘政治责任。
相关文章

原文

The market for oil is global, which is why events like the war in Iran affect oil prices – and prices of the wide range of products made from oil – literally everywhere. Federal data shows that the price at the primary crude oil hub in the U.S. was US$66 a barrel in late February 2026 – before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran – and $101 a barrel on April 13. Similar price increases have reverberated around the globe.

As an energy economist and an international trade economist, we field a lot of questions during such episodes, because when oil prices go up, manufacturers, businesses and ultimately consumers pay more.

Some basic economics

Crude oil may be the most important commodity in the global economic system.

It’s a literal fuel for the industrial economy. It powers the engines that drive transportation and paves the roads vehicles drive on. It’s a source for plastics from which the world’s products get made and packaged, and a key ingredient at some point in almost every supply chain. Even fertilizers that boost the food supply are made from it. In short, it is difficult to imagine modern life without oil and its derivatives.

And when its supply changes, its price changes. Economists explain this using a fundamental model of our field: the supply-demand diagram. When there’s less of something to go around, competition among consumers who want it and companies that need it can drive the price up.

In general, when supply of a product is reduced, prices rise. As a result, even when demand remains stable, the quantity consumers buy decreases because of higher prices. Matthew E. Oliver and Tibor Besedeš, CC BY-NC-ND

Sometimes this process can play out over time, allowing people to adjust their purchasing or activities to dampen price shocks. But when a significant source of the world’s oil is effectively blocked without much advance notice, such as when the the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, prices can rise sharply in a short period of time.

A natural question many people ask when oil prices spike is: Where does all that additional money go, and who benefits from it?

Some people have written entire books dissecting all the places that money goes when it leaves consumers’ pockets. But ultimately, the bulk of the money heads in the direction of the source of the oil itself – the oil companies.

What they do with the money varies widely, depending on where in the world an oil company is operating and who owns it. What also matters is the business environment – the set of laws and regulations – in which the company operates.

A satellite photo shows damage from the war at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery, which must be repaired before full operations can resume. Satellite image (c) 2026 Vantor via Getty Images

Middle East faces danger

Oil producers in the Middle East face significant new risk because of the war in Iran, including threats to production, processing locations and shipping routes. These risks raise their costs for insurance, security and transportation.

But production costs in the region are relatively low, so higher global oil prices typically still translate into strong profits.

For a major exporter such as Saudi Arabia, the government owns and controls nearly all oil production, so high prices generally benefit the government’s finances and investments, even during a war. In Saudi Arabia, oil revenue has historically been used to fund public spending.

West Texas gets a windfall

The Permian Basin, the largest oil field in the U.S., is a long way from the Persian Gulf. When global oil prices rise because of the war in Iran, oil companies operating in West Texas effectively get a windfall gain: Prices rise more quickly than costs, at least in the short run.

The immediate effect is more income from higher prices. The money largely goes to company owners – meaning shareholders – through dividends, debt reduction, company-backed purchases of its own stock, and reinvestment in drilling and production. Over time, companies may decide to spend some of that windfall on building more production capacity or pipelines to get more oil and gas to market.

Drilling rigs in the North Sea are still operating and shipping oil. AP Photo/James Brooks

North Sea boosts government revenue

In the North Sea, between the island of Great Britain and Scandinavia, a mix of multinational and government-owned companies produce most of the oil.

In the U.K., private shareholders are the primary beneficiaries of higher profits from increased oil prices, though an additional tax on oil and gas companies’ profits means the government also collects a significant share of the money, which it uses to help pay public expenses.

In Norway, oil revenues flow into the Government Pension Fund Global, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, valued at over $2 trillion. Laws govern how much, and for what purposes, money can be withdrawn from the fund, supporting public spending and preserving wealth for future generations. This is a similar model to Alaska’s state-owned program, funded by oil revenue, that pays for government services and sends an annual dividend to every permanent resident.

Russian oligarchs get rich

Russian oil is subject to stringent economic sanctions imposed by major industrial countries as a response to the Russian invasion and occupation of parts of Ukraine. While the U.S. cannot control how much Russia charges for its oil, it can control services needed to move Russian oil around the world. Under current price sanctions, Western shipping, insurance and financing can be used to ship and sell Russian crude oil only if the price is below $60 per barrel.

Russia’s oil industry is dominated by government-controlled companies whose leaders maintain close ties to President Vladimir Putin. The dealings of those shadowy figures are often shrouded in secrecy, but it is likely that they and Putin’s military-industrial complex – not the Russian people – are the main beneficiaries of high oil prices.

What this means for you

Everyday U.S. consumers may not like the idea of their hard-earned cash going into the already deep pockets of any of these groups. But in the short run, there’s not much to do but pay the price. For the long run, however, people around the world are already thinking and talking about, and opting for, sources of energy that don’t depend on fossil fuels.

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